2025年A股中期策略：曙光渐明

Group 1 - The report indicates that the return on equity (ROE) for A-shares is expected to stabilize and gradually recover, driven by improvements in net profit margins, asset turnover, and an increase in equity multiplier [2][3][15] - The broad-based valuation recovery of Chinese assets is ongoing, with the CSI 800 forward P/E stabilizing around 19x, reflecting a premium of approximately 5% over MSCI Emerging Markets excluding China [4][39] - Key assets such as A50, consumer sectors, and financials are expected to lead the recovery, demonstrating strong fundamental resilience during the past three years [2][5] Group 2 - The report highlights that the profit cycle is gradually re-emerging, with A-share profit growth expected to recover, alleviating previous concerns about a long-term decline [3][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of five investment themes: RMB appreciation, technology cycles, inventory cycles, capacity cycles, and capital market reforms [6][39] - The report predicts that the non-financial A-share net profit growth rate for 2025 will be approximately 8.3%, with a reasonable valuation for the Shanghai Composite Index estimated at around 13.1x [9][45]