山金期货黑色板块日报-20250603

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The policy-side positives for the steel market have basically been realized, and the easing of Sino-US trade tensions is also reflected in prices. The real estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower-tier cities is still bottoming out, with new construction area significantly declining and completion and construction areas still showing large year-on-year drops. The market is gradually shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and the weak expectation may not have changed substantially. Technically, steel prices have broken through the recent trading range and are expected to continue the downward trend [1]. - Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, but with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production cuts, iron ore demand is expected to decline. On the supply side, global shipments are relatively high and rising seasonally. The slowdown in port inventory decline and the high proportion of trade ore inventory put pressure on futures prices. The iron ore futures price is within the recent trading range and may break downwards driven by the decline in steel prices [3]. Summary by Directory I. Threaded Rods and Hot-Rolled Coils - Market Situation: Policy-side positives are realized, real estate in core cities stabilizes while lower-tier cities are bottoming out. Demand is expected to weaken with the arrival of the rainy season and high temperatures. The impact of production cut rumors is limited, and steel mills' initiative to cut production is weak [1]. - Technical Analysis: Prices have broken through the recent trading range and are expected to continue the downward trend [1]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions [1]. - Data Summary: - Prices: Futures and spot prices of threaded rods and hot-rolled coils have declined. For example, the threaded rod futures price dropped by 2.79% compared to last week, and the hot-rolled coil futures price dropped by 3.54% [1]. - Production: The national building materials steel mill threaded rod production decreased by 2.58% week-on-week, while the hot-rolled coil production increased by 4.54% [1]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 2.92% week-on-week, with the threaded rod social inventory dropping by 5.25% and the hot-rolled coil social inventory dropping by 2.08% [1]. II. Iron Ore - Market Situation: Steel mills' iron water production is expected to decline further. The supply is relatively high, and the port inventory decline is slowing down with a high proportion of trade ore inventory [3]. - Technical Analysis: The futures price is within the recent trading range and may break downwards driven by the decline in steel prices [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions lightly [3]. - Data Summary: - Prices: The prices of various iron ore varieties have declined. For example, the price of Mac fines at Qingdao Port dropped by 2.46% compared to last week [3]. - Shipments: Australian iron ore shipments increased by 7.41% week-on-week, while Brazilian shipments decreased by 3.40% [3]. - Inventory: The total port inventory decreased by 0.87% week-on-week, and the port trade ore inventory decreased by 1.50% [3]. III. Industry News - In May 2025, the coking coal long-term agreement coal-steel linkage floating value decreased by 31.2 yuan/ton month-on-month, a decline of 2.39% [5]. - Mongolia's ER company's coking coal has failed to be sold in 16 consecutive auctions, with a starting price of 750 yuan/ton [6]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased by 122.25 tons week-on-week [7]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.87%, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.69%, the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, and the daily average iron water output was 2.4191 million tons [8]. - The Gabonese government announced that it will stop exporting manganese ore raw materials from 2029 as part of its national strategy to promote industrialization and reduce dependence on unprocessed resource exports [9].