本周热点前瞻2025-06-03

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly preview of key events and data releases that could impact the futures market, including central bank announcements, economic data releases, and geopolitical factors [2]. Key Events and Data Releases June 3 - Markit will release China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May at 9:45, with an expected value of 50.6 (previous: 50.4). A slightly higher value may mildly boost commodity and stock index futures but suppress bond futures [4]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary May CPI for the Eurozone at 17:00, with expected annual rates of 2.0% (previous: 2.2%) for the harmonized CPI and 2.5% (previous: 2.7%) for the core harmonized CPI [5]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the April unemployment rate for the Eurozone at 17:00, with an expected rate of 6.2% (previous: 6.2%) [6]. - The US Department of Commerce will release April factory orders at 22:00, with an expected monthly rate of -3.1% (previous: 4.3%) [8]. June 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field for late May at 9:30 [9]. - ADP will release the US May ADP employment change at 20:15, with an expected increase of 115,000 (previous: 62,000). A significantly higher value may suppress gold and silver futures but boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [10]. - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 21:45, with the overnight lending rate expected to remain at 2.75% [11]. - The Institute for Supply Management will release the US May ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI at 22:00, with an expected value of 52 (previous: 51.6). A slightly higher value may mildly suppress gold futures [12]. - The US Energy Information Administration will release the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending May 30 at 22:30. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures [13]. June 5 - The Fed will release the Beige Book at 02:00 [14]. - Markit will release China's Caixin Services PMI and Composite PMI for May at 09:45, with an expected services PMI of 51.1 (previous: 50.7). A slightly higher value may mildly boost stock index and commodity futures but suppress bond futures [15]. - The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 20:15, with expected rate cuts. The main refinancing rate is expected to drop from 2.40% to 2.15%, the deposit facility rate from 2.25% to 2.00%, and the marginal lending rate from 2.65% to 2.45% [16]. - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31 at 20:30, with an expected number of 245,000 (previous: 240,000). A slightly higher value may boost gold and silver futures but suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [17]. June 6 - The EU Statistics Bureau will release Eurozone April retail sales at 17:00, with an expected monthly rate of 0.1% (previous: - 0.1%) and an annual rate of 1.4% (previous: 1.5%) [18]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the final Q1 2025 GDP for the Eurozone at 17:00, with an expected annual rate of 0.4% (revised: 0.3%) and a quarterly rate of 1.2% (revised: 1.2%) [19]. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May non - farm payroll report at 20:30, with an expected seasonally - adjusted non - farm payroll increase of 130,000 (previous: 177,000), an unemployment rate of 4.2% (previous: 4.2%), and an average hourly earnings annual rate of 3.7% (previous: 3.8%). A significantly lower non - farm payroll increase may boost gold and silver futures and suppress other commodity futures [20]. June 7 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will release China's May foreign exchange and gold reserves. The April foreign exchange reserves were $3282 billion, and the April gold reserves were 73.77 million ounces [21].