Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The planting industry chain is progressing well, with 1.29 million acres of summer grain wheat harvested as of May 30, 2025, which is over 30% of the total expected harvest. Regions such as Hubei, Sichuan, and South China have completed their wheat harvests, while Anhui has surpassed 80% and Henan over 60% [1][9] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the importance of tracking weather changes and preparing for emergency harvesting to ensure timely collection of mature wheat. The commercialization of genetically modified technology is expected to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency in key varieties [1][9] - In the pig farming sector, the average price of external three-way cross pigs is 14.39 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.36%. The number of breeding sows is 40.38 million, showing a slight decrease [2][10] - The report suggests that while short-term consumer demand is recovering, supply remains relatively loose. However, due to slow recovery in production capacity in 2024, pig prices are expected to exceed expectations in the second half of 2025 [2][10] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - As of May 30, 2025, 1.29 million acres of summer grain wheat have been harvested, with significant progress in various provinces. The upcoming rainfall is beneficial for soil conditions and will facilitate mechanized sowing [1][9] - The Ministry of Agriculture will focus on ensuring the timely harvesting of wheat and improving mechanization to enhance yield [1][9] - Recommended stocks in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with a focus on leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [1][9] Pig Farming - The average price of pigs is 14.39 CNY/kg, with a slight increase from the previous week. The number of breeding sows has decreased slightly, while slaughtering volume has increased significantly year-on-year [2][10] - The report highlights the need to monitor cost improvements and suggests stocks such as Dekang Animal Husbandry, Jinke Intelligent Agriculture, and Muyuan Foods for potential investment [2][10] Market Performance - The agricultural sector index increased by 1.79% during the week of May 26 to May 30, 2025, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component [11][12] - The top-performing sub-sectors include aquaculture and livestock farming, indicating a positive trend in the agricultural market [11][12]
农林牧渔行业周报第18期:夏粮收获三成,猪价震荡运行