6月信用的机会和风险都在长端

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the credit bond market had an independent performance. By the end of the month, the valuation yields of urban investment bonds with implicit ratings from 1 - 5 years reached historical lows, and credit spreads also hit lows. Only the 5 - year variety still had compression space. At the end of the month, there was a slight bond - market shock, with a 2 - 3bp retracement in credit bond yields and spreads [1]. - Short - duration spreads hit new lows, while term spreads and grade spreads still have room. The yields of 1 - year varieties in May continued to decline, breaking the low in June 2024. There is still room for compression in grade spreads and term spreads [2]. - Currently, the coupon advantage of credit bonds remains, but the valuation fluctuation risk has started to increase. The main reasons for the stronger performance of credit bonds than interest - rate bonds in May were the decline in the central funds rate and the increased demand for credit bond allocation due to deposit transfer. However, overseas uncertainties and institutional behavior changes at the end of the month and quarter have a growing impact on the market [3]. - In the future, short - duration spreads of various implicit ratings have reached historical lows. Without new expectations, the probability of further decline in the short - term is low. The main capital gain space may come from the compression of grade spreads and term spreads. At the same time, the valuation fluctuation risk of credit bonds is accumulating, and medium - and long - term risks cannot be ignored [3][5]. - Strategically, investors are advised to adopt a duration strategy. Consider 3 - 4 - year credit bonds for riding returns, and also consider extending the duration of high - grade credit bonds to 6 - 7 years. The annualized riding return of AAA - grade bonds is about 2.6% [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Credit Bond Market Performance in May - The valuation yields of 1 - 5 - year urban investment bonds with various implicit ratings reached historical lows, and credit spreads also hit lows. Only the 5 - year variety still had compression space. At the end of the month, there was a slight bond - market shock, with a 2 - 3bp retracement in credit bond yields and spreads [1]. - The yields of 1 - year varieties in May continued to decline, breaking the low in June 2024. The 3 - year AA +, AA, and AA(2) implicit ratings had grade spreads of 7bp, 16bp, and 27bp compared to AAA, with 5 - 10bp compression space compared to historical lows. The historical quantiles of term spreads of 3 - year and 5 - year varieties compared to 1 - year varieties of the same rating were still in the 10% - 20% range [2]. Reasons for Market Performance and Future Outlook - The stronger performance of credit bonds than interest - rate bonds in May was due to the decline in the central funds rate and increased credit bond allocation demand from deposit transfer. But overseas uncertainties and institutional behavior changes at the end of the month and quarter had a growing impact. At the end of May, fund redemptions caused significant bond - market fluctuations [3]. - Short - duration spreads have reached historical lows. Without new expectations, the probability of further decline in the short - term is low. The main capital gain space may come from the compression of grade spreads and term spreads. The valuation fluctuation risk of credit bonds is accumulating, and medium - and long - term risks cannot be ignored [3][5]. Investment Strategy - Adopt a duration strategy. Consider 3 - 4 - year credit bonds for more riding returns. Also, consider extending the duration of high - grade credit bonds to 6 - 7 years. Based on the end - of - month yield curve, the annualized riding return of AAA - grade bonds is about 2.6% [5].