流动性周报：存单提价风险怎么看？-20250603

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The risk of continued price increases for interbank certificates of deposit (NCDs) is low. The contradictions causing the front - loading of large banks' liability pressure are unlikely to intensify in June. The reasonable pricing center for NCDs of national and joint - stock banks after future capital price declines is 1.6%, and the current 1.7% is on the high side, presenting significant allocation value, but it is difficult for the NCD interest rate to decline in June [3][16][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Reasons for the Sudden Price Increase of NCDs at the End of May - The sudden price increase of NCDs at the end of May led to a synchronous adjustment of interest rates and credit, and the NCD interest rate deviated from the capital price trend, with the NCD interest rate of national and joint - stock banks rising above 1.7% and the issuance volume increasing, which aggravated institutional concerns about banks' lack of liabilities [1][8]. 2. Analysis of the Reasons for the Front - loading of Large Banks' Liability Pressure - Active front - loading of liability pressure by large banks: In the last week of May, the issuance volume of NCDs increased, mainly the 1 - year variety of large state - owned banks, with a single - week issuance scale of 27.81 billion. The large banks advanced part of the liability pressure in advance. The 1 - year NCD maturity scale of large banks in June is around 240 billion, and the single - week issuance at the end of May has exceeded the future maturity [10][11]. - Deposit interest rate cut: Although the deposit interest rate cut aggravated the concern about banks' liability loss, the actual situation is acceptable. There was no obvious change in the scale of wealth management products after the deposit interest rate cut. The rapid transmission of this round of deposit interest rate cuts will reduce the relative liability pressure of large banks [2][13]. - Credit and bond factors: Credit demand in May may have improved marginally, and the government bond issuance peak in May increased the demand for long - term liabilities of banks. Considering the semi - annual time - point and indicator assessment at the end of June, the demand for long - term funds of banks may have increased marginally, but there is no obvious long - term liability pressure trend [2][14]. 3. Outlook for NCDs in June - The contradictions causing the front - loading of large banks' liability pressure are unlikely to intensify in June, and the space for continued price increases of NCDs is limited. After large banks raise 1 - year funds in advance, 3 - month NCDs may be the consensus term for both supply and demand. The supply pressure of long - term NCDs mainly depends on the issuance demand of joint - stock banks [3][16]. - The relative competition pressure of large banks' deposits is less than before. The so - called "disintermediation" of deposits will increase the allocation power of non - bank product accounts to NCDs and deposits, and the current impact is only at the expected level. The liability pressure brought by credit and long - bond allocation is a marginal change, and the government bond issuance pressure will weaken in June [3][16][17].