2025年一季度地方政府债券市场观察：隐债置换加快土储专项债重启，地方债发行规模创同期历史新高

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2025, the issuance scale of local government bonds reached a record high for the same period, with the issuance of government special bonds for implicit debt replacement advancing rapidly. The supply of new special bonds will gradually increase in Q2. [2] - In 2025, the central government implemented a series of more proactive fiscal policies for counter - cyclical adjustment. Considering the global tariff uncertainties in April, fiscal policies are expected to be moderately strengthened to stabilize economic growth. [2] - The strict supervision of local government debt will continue, and the debt resolution approach is shifting towards "balancing risk prevention and development", which may lead to further differentiation in debt resolution resources and local investment and financing space. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Review of Local Government Bond - Related Policies - Implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy: The fiscal deficit rate was increased to about 4%, and the deficit scale reached 5.66 trillion yuan. A larger - scale government bond issuance was arranged, including ultra - long - term special treasury bonds of 1.3 trillion yuan, special treasury bonds of 500 billion yuan, and new local government special bond quotas of 4.4 trillion yuan. Policies were also introduced to support land reserve work and promote the stability of the real estate market. [3][4] - Promotion of implicit debt replacement: In 2024 - 2026, 2 trillion yuan of local government debt quotas were approved annually for implicit debt replacement. In Q1 2025, nearly 70% of the 2 - trillion - yuan replacement quota was issued, effectively alleviating local debt pressure. [5] - Improvement of debt management mechanisms: The Ministry of Finance emphasized not adding new implicit debts, improving local debt monitoring and risk indicator systems, and optimizing special bond management mechanisms, such as expanding investment areas and pilot "self - review and self - issuance" projects. [6][7] II. Review of the Local Government Bond Market in Q1 2025 1. Issuance Overview - Record - high scale: In Q1 2025, local government bonds were issued 463 times, with a total amount of 2.84 trillion yuan, an 80.58% increase year - on - year. Special bonds accounted for 85.57% of new issuances. New bonds and refinancing bonds were issued at 1.24 trillion yuan and 1.60 trillion yuan respectively, with replacement implicit debt special bonds accounting for 83.44% of refinancing bonds. The net financing amount was 2.63 trillion yuan, a 174.70% increase year - on - year. [9][10] - Longer average remaining term: As of the end of March 2025, the national local government debt balance was 50.17 trillion yuan, and the average remaining term of local government bonds was 10 years (9.1 years at the end of March 2024). [10] - Regional differentiation: The top three regions in terms of issuance scale were Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Shandong. Economically active regions were the main issuers of new bonds, while key provinces mainly issued refinancing bonds. [17] 2. Interest Rate and Spread Analysis - Slight increase in interest rates: In Q1 2025, the average issuance interest rate of local government bonds was 1.94%, with 1.78% for general bonds and 1.98% for special bonds. [21] - Widening spread: The average spread of local government bonds widened to 11.28bp in Q1 2025. There were significant differences in spread trends among provinces, with Qinghai, Jilin, and Guizhou having relatively high spreads. [22] 3. Investment Areas of Local Government Special Bonds - Infrastructure as the main focus: In Q1 2025, the top three investment areas of special bonds were transportation infrastructure construction, urban - rural development, and urban infrastructure. The issuance amount of special bonds for transportation infrastructure accounted for over 20%. [30][31] - Restart of land reserve special bonds: Single - purpose land reserve special bonds for recycling idle land restarted this year, with an issuance amount accounting for 5.27%, all issued by Guangdong Province. [31] III. Future Outlook of Local Government Bonds - Increasing supply of new special bonds in Q2: In Q1 2025, new special bonds were issued at 0.96 trillion yuan, only 21.82% of the annual quota. With the implementation of the "self - review and self - issuance" pilot and the restart of land reserve special bonds in some regions, the supply of new special bonds is expected to increase in Q2. [32] - Possible strengthening of fiscal policies: Considering the global tariff uncertainties in April, fiscal policies are expected to be moderately strengthened to stabilize economic growth. The deficit rate was increased to 4%, and new local special bond quotas were increased by 0.5 trillion yuan. [2][35] - Downward potential and increased volatility of interest rates: There is still room for the overall downward movement of local government bond issuance interest rates, but volatility may increase due to factors such as external tariff shocks and stock market fluctuations. [36][37] - Shift in debt resolution approach: Local debt management will remain strictly supervised, and the debt resolution approach is shifting from "risk prevention" to "balancing risk prevention and development". Future debt resolution resources and local investment and financing space may further differentiate. [38]