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对公贷款增速领先，按揭贷款降幅持续收窄
Ping An Securities·2025-06-03 09:08

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The growth rate of financial institutions' loans has slightly decreased, primarily influenced by accelerated government bond issuance, leading to a structural tilt towards corporate loans [2] - The overall loan balance of financial institutions reached 265.41 trillion yuan at the end of Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, and an increase of 9.78 trillion yuan in the first quarter [1] - The growth rate of corporate loans remains the main focus, with medium to long-term loans in the industrial sector growing by 11.2% year-on-year, and infrastructure loans increasing by 8.0% [2] - The growth rate of inclusive small and micro loans is stable, with a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, which is 4.8 percentage points higher than the overall loan growth rate [2] - The decline in mortgage loans has slowed, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, influenced by a reduction in the decline of commercial housing sales area [2] Summary by Sections Loan Growth Overview - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total RMB loan balance was 265.41 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4% and an increase of 9.78 trillion yuan in Q1 [1] Corporate Loans - Corporate loans continue to receive the majority of resource allocation, with industrial medium to long-term loans growing by 11.2% year-on-year, and infrastructure loans increasing by 8.0% [2] Inclusive Finance - Inclusive small and micro loans showed a year-on-year growth of 12.2%, indicating a stable growth trend, while agricultural loans also maintained a high growth rate of 8.4% [2] Mortgage Loans - Mortgage loans experienced a year-on-year decline of 0.8%, but the rate of decline has narrowed, suggesting potential recovery in the future [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "pro-cyclical + high dividend" investment strategy, highlighting the attractiveness of dividend yields in the current market environment, with an average dividend yield of 4.19% [2]