煤焦日报-20250603

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, with wet - quenched coke down by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down by 55 yuan/ton. Both coking coal and coke are under pressure from weak fundamentals and are relatively weaker than other black - series products. [7] - As the impact of summer high temperatures and heavy rainfall increases, steel consumption seasonally weakens, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Steel mills' molten iron production continues to decline slightly but remains at a relatively high level. [7] - Coke supply tends to be loose, and its futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly; coking coal supply is generally sufficient, and its spot market is weak, with the futures market also expected to fluctuate weakly. [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Coke Futures: For example, J2601 closed at 1260.1, down 18 from the previous day; J2605 closed at 1365.0, down 25; J2509 closed at 1308.0, down 24.0. [2] - Coking Coal Futures: JM2601 closed at 747.5, down 30.5; JM2605 closed at 778.5, down 16.5; JM2509 (8052WIC) closed at 726.0, down 33.0. [2] - Spot Prices: Coke spot prices such as Xingtai's factory - gate price remained unchanged; coking coal spot prices like Australian low - volatile and medium - volatile coal also remained stable. [2] - Coking Profit: The 01 - contract coking profit was 273.8, up 212 (the data might have some errors in the table); the 05 - contract coking profit was 259.6, up 18.5; the 09 - contract coking profit was 274.9, up 19.3. [2][3] Fundamentals - Coke Fundamentals: 247 steel enterprises' daily molten iron production decreased by 1.69 to 243.6, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%; daily coke production of 247 steel enterprises increased slightly by 0.05 to 47.3, a month - on - month increase of 0.11%. [2] - Coking Coal Fundamentals: 110 coal - washing plants' daily refined coal production decreased by 1.0 to 51.8, a month - on - month decrease of 1.93%; 523 mines' daily refined coal production decreased by 2.3 to 76.3, a month - on - month decrease of 2.94%. [2] Important News - Mysteel's chief analyst predicted that the steel market in June would likely see weak supply and demand, and steel prices would hit new lows without production - control policies. [4] - Trump announced an increase in steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% starting from June 4. [5] - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the expected cross - regional personnel flow was 6.57 billion person - times, with a daily average of 2.19 billion person - times, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. [5] - The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. [5] - During the holiday, the ex - factory price of Tangshan Qian'an billet decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2870 yuan/ton. [6] - The price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal fell below 1200 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton, hitting a new low since 2017 with a further decline expected in the next month. [6] Trading Strategies - The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented. Due to weak fundamentals, both coking coal and coke are under pressure. [7] - Steel consumption is seasonally weakening, and steel mills are reducing inventory by controlling and reducing purchases, with a strong intention to suppress raw material prices. [7] - Coke supply is loose, and its futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly; coking coal supply is sufficient, and its market is also expected to be weak. [7]