Haitong Securities International·2025-06-03 09:34Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [1][4] Core Insights - Northern thermal power shows resilience with significant profit growth, while hydropower maintains stable performance. Green energy faces pressure on earnings due to dual impacts of wind conditions and electricity prices, while nuclear power's profitability is affected by electricity pricing [1][2][4] Summary by Sections Northern Thermal Power - The report highlights that the profitability of northern thermal power plants is growing faster than that of southern plants, with a median net profit growth rate of 8% for national thermal power companies in Q1 2025. The median PE ratios for thermal power companies have decreased from 15.7 in Q1 2023 to 10.4 in Q1 2025, indicating a declining market focus on this sector [8][10][9] - The report anticipates a recovery in thermal power performance in Q2 2025 following a significant drop in electricity generation in Q1 2025 due to a warm winter [10][14] Hydropower - Hydropower companies have shown strong earnings growth, with a median net profit growth rate of 26% in Q1 2025, driven by optimized water storage and scheduling. The median PE ratios for hydropower companies have fluctuated, reaching 18.8 in Q1 2024 before slightly declining to 18.1 in Q1 2025 [19][20][22] - The report notes that the El Niño phenomenon is expected to positively influence water inflow during the main flood season in 2024, while the situation for 2025 remains uncertain as the climate shifts to a La Niña phase [19][20] Green Energy - Green energy companies are experiencing a decline in net profit growth, with median growth rates of -12% in 2024 and -4% in Q1 2025. The sector is facing challenges from falling electricity prices and poor wind conditions, leading to a situation where revenue is increasing but profits are not [2][4] - The report predicts a recovery in green energy performance in 2025, with an expected median net profit growth rate of around 12% as wind utilization hours improve [2][4] Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector is experiencing mixed performance, with major companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power facing different challenges. The report indicates that profitability for China Nuclear Power is expected to decline significantly in 2024 due to accounting policy changes and tax implications, while China General Nuclear Power's profits are only slightly increasing despite new capacity coming online [2][4][5]