甲醇日评：油价或带动甲醇高开-20250603

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The report suggests that due to the increase in holiday overseas oil prices caused by intensified geopolitical conflicts, methanol is expected to open higher and may have a short - term rebound. However, it lacks upward momentum in the long run. From a valuation perspective, methanol is not cheap compared to upstream coal, and cost collapse still weighs heavily on coal - chemical products. But it is relatively inexpensive compared to downstream polyalkanes, and there is room for valuation repair. In terms of driving factors, after the weakening of macro - impacts, methanol is priced based on its fundamentals. Supply, including imports and inland supply, has rebounded rapidly, while demand has limited room for further growth, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation and insufficient upward momentum. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 decreased by 14 yuan/ton (-0.61%) to 2275 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.67%) to 2217 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.45%) to 2208 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot Prices: The price in Taicang increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (0.56%) to 2242.5 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong remained unchanged at 2150 yuan/ton; the price in Guangdong increased by 2.5 yuan/ton (0.11%) to 2267.5 yuan/ton; the price in Shaanxi remained unchanged at 1955 yuan/ton; the price in Sichuan - Chongqing remained unchanged at 2210 yuan/ton; the price in Hubei remained unchanged at 2245 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.27%) to 1880 yuan/ton [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 26.5 to - 32.5 [1]. - Coal and Natural Gas Prices: Coal and natural gas prices remained unchanged, including Ordos Q5500 at 425 yuan/ton, Datong Q5500 at 470 yuan/ton, Yulin Q6000 at 492.5 yuan/ton, industrial natural gas in Hohhot at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter, and in Chongqing at 3.30 yuan/cubic meter [1]. - Methanol Profit: Coal - based methanol profit remained unchanged at 309.7 yuan/ton; natural - gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 520 yuan/ton; Northwest MTO profit remained unchanged at 619 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit decreased by 26.5 yuan/ton (-11.06%) to - 266.07 yuan/ton; acetic acid profit decreased by 2.75 yuan/ton (-0.46%) to 595.43 yuan/ton; MTBE profit decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-9.44%) to 287.76 yuan/ton; formaldehyde profit remained unchanged at - 181.20 yuan/ton [1]. b. Important Information - Domestic Futures: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2220 yuan/ton, closing at 2208 yuan/ton, rising 7 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 701,459 lots and an open interest of 824,339 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - Foreign Information: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 251 - 256 US dollars/ton, with a lack of active bids and offers. The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian shipments arriving in the far - future increased by 1.3 - 1.6% compared to the previous period, and there were no reported real - deal transactions within the week. For other Middle - Eastern regions, the reference negotiation price of shipments arriving in the far - future increased by 0.5 - 1.1%, and methanol factories in other Middle - Eastern regions intended to set higher prices for product sales. Attention should be paid to the latest methanol tender results and shipping capacity of some factories in other Middle - Eastern regions [1]. c. Trading Strategy - It is expected that the increase in overseas oil prices during the holiday will drive methanol to open higher and may lead to a short - term rebound. However, methanol lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [1].