Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang Yijiang is 8,200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - International soybean situation: It's the U.S. soybean sowing and growing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season. Brazil's soybean harvest is almost complete, and the South American new - crop harvest is likely to be abundant. The USDA May 2025 report shows the 2025/26 soybean yield forecast is 52.5 bushels/acre, up from 50.7 bushels/acre in 2024/25 [1] - Domestic industry: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, the soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [1] - Reference view: The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 2,840 yuan/ton (unchanged), Tianjin 2,940 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), Rizhao 2,870 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton), Dongguan 2,860 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton) [2] - Market analysis: There is a phased agreement in Sino - U.S. trade, but long - term contradictions remain. Tariff policies and weather are the main drivers of international soybean prices. The supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, the oil mill operating rate is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to change from tight to loose. The high price of soybean meal boosts market transactions, and the downstream feed demand was underestimated. The soybean inventory of oil mills has returned to a high level, and the inventory accumulation speed of soybean meal is slow in the short term [2] - Reference view: Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia are 2,195 yuan/ton; in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it's 2,412 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,270 - 2,290 yuan/ton [3] - Market analysis: Externally, the Sino - U.S. joint statement on tariff reduction leads to an expectation of loose long - term corn imports, with limited short - term impact on domestic futures prices. The May USDA report has a negative impact on U.S. corn futures prices. Domestically, the supply pressure is relieved as the weather warms up, the planting season arrives, and the remaining grain in the producing areas is basically sold out. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment causes the futures price to decline [3] - Reference view: The short - term downward momentum of the futures price weakens, and there may be a rebound demand after the decline [3] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,130 - 78,340 yuan, down 250 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 43.56, up 0.72 [4] - Market analysis: Global tariff disputes and the U.S. tariff policy fluctuations make the market volatile. Domestic support policies give a positive market expectation. The raw material supply problem persists, and the domestic copper inventory is declining. The game between reality and expectation, and between the domestic and foreign markets makes the market more complex [4] - Reference view: Continue to pay attention to the impact of the moving - average system on copper prices, and set the overall defense line at the upper edge of the moving - average system [4] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 61,000 yuan/ton (down 250 yuan/ton), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 59,350 yuan/ton (down 250 yuan/ton). The price difference between the two is 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5] - Market analysis: The cost of lithium carbonate production has decreased, but the profit margin has not expanded. The production is still at a high level, and the supply may increase further. The demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive the price up. The inventory has decreased overall. Pay attention to the upstream production reduction [5] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may fluctuate weakly. It's advisable to go short on rallies [5][6] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan. The Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%. The social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [7] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, with a weaker near - term and stronger long - term situation. The cost is dynamically changing, and the inventory level is low. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [7] - Reference view: Due to the declining demand, it's advisable to wait and see until the market stabilizes [7] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) in Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 246.10 million tons [8] - Market analysis: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is low, the inventory is gradually increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [8] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke may fluctuate weakly at a low level [8] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 97.2. The price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 737 yuan [9] - Market analysis: The supply and demand factors are intertwined. The global iron ore shipment has decreased slightly, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has slightly declined, and the overseas demand is differentiated. The U.S. tariff policy and environmental protection restrictions suppress the price increase [9] - Reference view: The iron ore 2509 contract may fluctuate in the short term. Traders should be cautious [9] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: The U.S. - Iran negotiation has encountered setbacks, and the OPEC+ production increase plan has uncertainties. The supply may shrink. The OPEC has lowered the global demand growth forecast, and the geopolitical situation is unstable [10] - Reference view: The WTI main contract may fluctuate between 58 - 65 dollars/barrel [10] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The U.S. trade war and tariff policies suppress the rubber price. The supply is abundant as the rubber - producing areas are in the harvesting season. The global supply and demand are both loose [10] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. The rubber market is weak overall [10] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 350 yuan/ton, unchanged [11] - Market analysis: The production enterprise operating rate has decreased slightly. The demand is still mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory has decreased. The futures price is oscillating weakly at a low level [11] - Reference view: The fundamentals are still weak, and the futures price will oscillate weakly at a low level [11] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,402.50 yuan/ton, down 1.88 yuan/ton [12] - Market analysis: The supply has increased, the inventory has decreased, and the demand is average. The market lacks new driving forces [12] - Reference view: The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate within the bottom - range in the short term [12]
安粮期货商品期货投资早参-20250603
An Liang Qi Huo·2025-06-03 09:49