宝城期货资讯早班车-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic operation in Q2 is expected to continue in a stable manner with the continuous implementation of growth - stabilizing policies, but the foundation for economic recovery needs to be consolidated, and policies need further strengthening [2][16] - The US fiscal deficit in the 2026 fiscal year may reach $2.2 trillion, and the deficit rate may rise to 7%, which will increase the supply pressure of US Treasury bonds and may cause continuous fluctuations in US dollar assets [29] - It is expected that the monetary policy will be further relaxed in the second and third quarters, and investors are advised to actively allocate Chinese bonds [29] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In Q1 2025, GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter [1] - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][2][16] - In April 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 1.5%, and 8.0% respectively [1] - In April 2025, the new RMB loans of financial institutions were 280 billion yuan, a significant decrease from the previous month [1] - In April 2025, CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.7% year - on - year [1] - In April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) and total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.0% and 4.7% respectively [1] - In April 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export and import values were 8.1% and - 0.2% respectively [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China's manufacturing PMI improved in May, and the export container freight rate index rebounded, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing boom level [2][16] - The US core PCE price index in April increased by 2.5% year - on - year, and the "super core inflation indicator" dropped to the lowest in four years, leading traders to bet on a Fed rate cut in September [2] - US officials defended tariffs, stating that they would not disappear [3] - Fed's Daly is confident in the Fed's prediction of two rate cuts by the end of the year [3] 3.2.2 Metals - Platinum has seen a significant increase this year, with a maximum cumulative increase of 25%. JP Morgan predicts that the platinum price will reach $1200 per ounce in Q4 2025 and $1300 per ounce in Q2 2026 [5] - Chile expects its copper production to reach 5.67 million tons in 2025 [6] - Goldman Sachs predicts an increased possibility of US copper import tariffs, and has adjusted its aluminum price forecast [6] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Multiple regions in China are strengthening the management of strategic minerals to prevent illegal exports [8] - The US will raise the steel import tariff from 25% to 50% on June 4, and the EU is considering counter - measures [8][9][19] - The price of coking coal dropped by 1.17% in mid - May, reaching a record low [10] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July [11] - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day in August and maintains its oil price forecast [11] - The Russian central bank believes that the risk of financial instability is limited due to low debt levels and accumulated reserves [11] - India has lowered the natural gas price by 5% in June [12] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Malaysia's palm oil exports in May increased by 17.9% compared to the same period last month [13] - The price of soybeans increased by 1.18% in mid - May, reaching a new high since late September 2024 [14] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On May 30, the central bank conducted 291.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 148.6 billion yuan [15] - A total of 1.6026 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market this week [15] - The central bank conducted 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations in May, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [17] 3.3.2 Key News - China's economic data in May showed that the manufacturing PMI improved, and the import and export situation improved [2][16] - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 18 - 19, and several major financial policies will be announced [16] - It is expected that the central bank may resume buying government bonds in July or August [17] - The US has extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation against China [18] - Multiple cities' new home prices showed different trends in May, with first - and second - tier cities rising and third - and fourth - tier cities falling [21] - As of May 28, 119 market entities issued science and technology innovation bonds with a total issuance of 339.1 billion yuan [21] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The domestic bond market rebounded, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures rising by 0.56%, and major interest - rate bond yields falling [25] - The exchange bond market showed mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling [25] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.06%, and the trading volume was 58.988 billion yuan [25] - Most money market interest rates and bond yields in the US and Europe increased [26][27] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1953, down 37 basis points from the previous trading day [28] - The US dollar index fell by 0.75%, and most non - US currencies rose [28] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Securities predicts that the US fiscal deficit in the 2026 fiscal year may reach $2.2 trillion, and the deficit rate may rise to 7% [29] - CICC Fixed Income expects the monetary policy to be relaxed in the second and third quarters, and suggests investors to allocate Chinese bonds [29] - Huatai Securities believes that fiscal policies may be further strengthened to support economic growth [30] 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.57%, and pharmaceutical and real - estate stocks led the decline [32] - As of June 3, 28 listed companies have "removed stars and caps" this year, more than the same period last year [32] - As of May 31, private equity funds showed strong interest in ETFs, especially science - innovation and free - cash - flow themed ETFs [33] - *ST Hengli is under investigation by the CSRC for suspected false disclosure of financial data [33]