【早间看点】ITS马棕5月出口增加17.9% USDA美豆当周优良率为67%低于预期-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global vegetable oil market is entering a shortage phase due to reduced production and increased demand, with palm oil production declining and demand remaining high, especially from the biofuel industry [12]. - The weather in the US soybean - producing states and the Midwest region will have an impact on soybean production, and the current soybean growth indicators have certain deviations from expectations [7][9][13]. - Various countries' economic data and policies, such as the Fed's interest - rate decisions, the US's trade policies, and OPEC+'s oil production decisions, will affect the commodity and financial markets [23][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Overnight Market Quotes - Futures: Closing prices, previous day's and overnight price changes of commodities like Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Brent 08 (ICE) is $65.12, with a previous day's increase of 4.01% and an overnight decrease of 0.46% [1]. - Currencies: The latest prices, price changes, and 10 - day price changes of currencies such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, etc. are shown. For instance, the US dollar index is at 98.70, with a decrease of 0.72% [2]. 02 Spot Market Quotes - Futures and Spot: Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE soybean oil 2509 in Shandong is 7920 yuan, with a basis of 274 yuan and a basis change of 1 yuan [4]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - (Weather in Producing Areas) - US Soybean Producing States: Future weather forecasts (June 7 - 11) show that most areas will have higher - than - average rainfall and lower temperatures in the central part. The Midwest will have more widespread showers and thunderstorms [7][9]. - Canada: Multiple provinces are facing spring forest wildfires, with the forest fire prevention level reaching the highest level of 5, and the cumulative burned area approaching 890,000 hectares [10]. Industry Data - Palm Oil: Malaysia's May palm oil exports increased by 17.9% compared to the previous month. Indonesia's palm oil production, exports, and inventory data show different trends in different periods [11]. - CFTC Position Report: Changes in long and short positions of CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, and ICE rapeseed as of the week of May 27 are reported [11]. - USDA Reports: Include crop growth, drought monitoring, export inspection, export sales, and monthly crushing reports, which reflect the growth, export, and processing status of US soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal [13][14][15][16]. - South American Data: Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast is revised upward, and Argentina's soybean harvest progress and agricultural export revenue are reported [16]. - EU Data: The next - year's EU rapeseed, sunflower seed, and soybean production forecasts are adjusted [17]. - Canada: The progress of spring rapeseed sowing in Saskatchewan and Alberta is reported [17]. Domestic Supply and Demand - Commodity Transactions: On May 30, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, and the trading volume of soybean meal also decreased. The开机率 of oil mills decreased [19]. - Livestock Farming: Pig - farming profits show different trends, and the price of agricultural products and livestock products has changes [19][20]. 04 Macro - economic News International News - US Economic Data: The probability of the Fed's interest - rate decisions in June and July, US manufacturing PMI, construction spending, GDP growth forecasts, and trade policies are reported. For example, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June is 95.3% [23][24]. - OPEC+: OPEC+ agrees to increase daily oil production by 411,000 barrels for the third consecutive month [24]. - Eurozone: The Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI final value is 49.4 [25]. Domestic News - Exchange Rate: On May 30, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate is adjusted downward (the Chinese yuan appreciates) [26]. - Monetary Policy: The Chinese central bank conducts 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment [26]. - Economic Data: China's May official manufacturing PMI is 49.5, and the balance of RMB loans at the end of the first quarter of 2025 is reported [26]. 05 Key Information Analysis - MPOB Report: Malaysia's April palm oil ending inventory increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, with production, exports, imports, and consumption showing different trends, and the report has a negative impact [27]. - USDA Report: The USDA's May supply - demand report has different impacts on the 24/25 and 25/26 market years of US soybeans, with the 25/26 market - year ending inventory forecast being lower than expected, and the report has a positive impact [28]. 06 Fund Flows - On May 30, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 20.404 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 1.427 billion yuan in commodity futures and 18.977 billion yuan in stock - index futures [31]. 07 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.