Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The glass market is expected to experience a weak adjustment. The recommended investment strategy is to short on rebounds, with a focus on the 1015 - 1035 pressure range for the 09 contract [2][3][85]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review: Spot Price Drop, Futures Price Decline - Futures Price: In May, the glass futures market continued its downward trend. At the end of May, there was a slight rebound due to the oversupply of soda ash, a suitable soda - glass price difference leading to arbitrage operations, and rumors of cold repairs in Hubei production lines. Subsequently, large - scale ignition and resumption of production, along with the increase in inventory during the off - season, caused the main contract to fall below 1000. As of May 30, the glass 09 contract closed at 982 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 18 [3][85]. - Spot Price: As of May 30, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1180 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1100 yuan/ton in Central China (down 10 yuan), and 1300 yuan/ton in East China (unchanged) [13]. - Price Differences: As of May 30, the soda - glass price difference was 217 yuan/ton (down 36 yuan), the basis of the 09 contract was 68 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan), and the 09 - 01 spread was - 61 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) [14]. 2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Weakening Costs, Declining Profits - Imports and Exports: In March, China imported 475,300 weight - cases of float glass (a year - on - year increase of 44.78%) and exported 1,721,800 weight - cases (a year - on - year increase of 141.52%). There was an increase in the demand for some high - end glass abroad [21]. - Profits: The cost and selling price of glass both decreased, leading to weaker profits. The cost of natural gas production was 1603 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), with a gross profit of - 303 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan); the cost of coal - gas production was 1148 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), with a gross profit of 32 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan); the cost of petroleum coke production was 1159 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), with a gross profit of - 59 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan) [24][27]. - Supply: As of last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 159,205 tons/day (up 1800 tons). In May, 2 production lines were cold - repaired, and 3 were restarted after ignition. The national inventory remained at a high level, with the inventory in North China and Central China increasing at the end of the month [29][30][31]. - Inventory: As of May 30, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 67,662,000 weight - cases (down 107,000 weight - cases). The inventory in North China was 9,598,000 weight - cases (up 177,000 weight - cases), in Central China was 7,658,000 weight - cases (down 76,000 weight - cases), in East China was 15,700,000 weight - cases (up 5,000 weight - cases), and in South China was 10,521,000 weight - cases (down 39,000 weight - cases) [31]. - Deep - processing: The orders of glass deep - processing were less than in previous years. As of May 30, the average national production - sales ratio of float glass was 98.8% (down 5.63%), the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 50.2% (unchanged), and in mid - May, the number of days of glass deep - processing orders was 10.4 days (up 0.1 day) [37][40][41]. - Demand - Automobile: In April, China's automobile production was 2.619 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 387,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 213,000 vehicles), and sales were 2.59 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 325,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 231,000 vehicles). The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 905,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 51.5% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%) [51]. - Demand - Real Estate: In April, China's real estate completion area was 25.8758 million square meters (a year - on - year decrease of 28%), sales were basically flat year - on - year, and other indicators decreased by more than 20%. New construction was 48.3938 million square meters (down 22%), construction was 66.0961 million square meters (down 27%), and commercial housing sales were 63.9239 million square meters (down 3%). From May 18th to May 25th, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.28 million square meters (a month - on - month increase of 21% and a year - on - year increase of 8%). In April, real estate development investment was 782.54 billion yuan (a year - on - year decrease of 11%) [56]. - Cost - Soda Ash - Spot Price: As of May 30, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1500 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1440 yuan/ton in East China (down 10 yuan), 1400 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1575 yuan/ton in South China (unchanged). The 2509 contract of soda ash closed at 1199 yuan/ton (down 54 yuan), and the basis in Central China was 201 yuan/ton (up 54 yuan) [58][63]. - Cost - Soda Ash - Profits: As of the end of the month, the cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda - ash enterprises was 1443 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), with a gross profit of 67 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan); the cost of the joint - production process was 1635 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), with a gross profit of 215 yuan/ton (down 53 yuan) [65]. - Cost - Soda Ash - Inventory: Last week, the domestic soda - ash production was 685,100 tons (a week - on - week increase of 21,300 tons), including 369,800 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 9800 tons) and 315,300 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 11,500 tons). The loss was 180,600 tons (a week - on - week increase of 12,300 tons). The exchange soda - ash warehouse receipts at the end of last week were 2062 (a week - on - week increase of 1915). As of May 30, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.6243 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 52,500 tons), including 806,000 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons) and 818,300 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 14,500 tons) [80]. - Cost - Soda Ash - Apparent Demand: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 407,800 tons (a week - on - week increase of 8500 tons), and for light soda ash was 329,800 tons (a week - on - week increase of 30,100 tons). The production - sales ratio of soda ash was 107.66% (a week - on - week increase of 2.36%). In April, the soda - ash inventory of sample float - glass factories was 24.2 days [82]. 3. Investment Strategy: Strong Supply, Weak Demand, Short on Rebounds - Main Logic: In May, the glass futures market continued to decline. At the end of the month, there was a slight rebound, but then the main contract fell below 1000 due to factors such as production resumption and inventory increase. In June, there is a plan to restart the first line of Shahe Xinli, and the supply remains loose. Considering high - temperature rainfall, previous ignition, and coal costs, glass prices are still suppressed, lacking the impetus for a significant rebound. Technically, the 09 contract broke below the 1000 mark after two confirmations, indicating that the short - side power still dominates. - Operation Strategy: Short on rebounds, with a focus on the 1015 - 1035 pressure range for the 09 contract, and partially take profits on previous short positions [3][85].
玻璃六月报淡季供增需减，盘面依旧看弱-20250603
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-06-03 09:51