生猪周报：降重预期强，远月合约价格偏强运行-20250603

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The main reasons are that the piglet data indicates an increasing trend in pig slaughter volume by September, leading to abundant supply and downward pressure on prices. Also, as pig prices fall, the optimal slaughter weight decreases, forcing farmers to reduce pig weights, which further weighs on prices. Meanwhile, the LH2509 contract is currently at a relatively reasonable price level and is recommended to be observed for now [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures End - Main Contract Basis Situation: The market believes that farmers are likely to reduce pig weights in June and July, which is negative for the current situation but positive for the future. Therefore, the main contract (LH2509) has been adjusted with a slight upward trend. As of May 30, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was 945 yuan/ton [2][3]. - Price Changes of Each Contract: Driven by the expectation of pig weight reduction, the prices of far - month contracts are fluctuating with a slight upward trend [7]. - Inter - monthly Spread Changes: Under the drive of the expectation of pig weight reduction, there is a reverse spread trend for the 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 contracts [8][11]. 2. Spot End - Pig Price and Slaughter Volume: This week, affected by the adjustment of the slaughter rhythm and the Dragon Boat Festival stocking, the slaughter volume first decreased and then increased, and the pig price mainly fluctuated and adjusted [14]. - Regional Spread: Henan remains a high - price area [16]. - Fat - Standard Spread: The fat - standard spread is oscillating and adjusting [18]. - Fresh Sales and Hair - White Spread: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - Related Product Price Ratios and Fresh - Frozen Spread: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. There is almost no fresh - frozen spread for No. 2 meat, and fresh products will replace frozen products, increasing the demand for live pigs [22]. - Breeding Profit: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is in a marginal profit state [24]. - Slaughter Weight: The slaughter weight continues to decline, and the pressure of previous inventory accumulation is gradually released [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - Inventory of Reproductive Sows: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the national inventory of reproductive sows at the end of April was 40.38 million, unchanged from the previous month and up 1.3% year - on - year. Data from Yongyi Consulting and My steel also show an increase in the inventory of reproductive sows in their sample areas [28]. - Sow Culling Situation: The price of culled sows has been running weakly this week, and the slaughter volume of culled sows decreased month - on - month in April [30]. - Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets: In April, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 2.91% month - on - month (previous value +0.94%), indicating a continuous increase in the number of pigs to be slaughtered in October this year [32]. - Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets continued to fall, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was running weakly and steadily [34]. 4. Slaughter End - Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Profit: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In April, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.77 million, up 0.5% month - on - month and 20% year - on - year. The market for frozen products has gradually changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction, and its impact on pig prices has changed from positive to neutral and negative [36]. 5. Import End - In April 2025, the pork import volume was about 79,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].