西南期货早间评论-20250603

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions due to various factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policy [5][6]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs showed certain changes. The US extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The sales of TOP100 real - estate enterprises declined. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold futures rose, and silver futures fell slightly. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue. It is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel Products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses demand, but the current price valuation is low. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures showed weak oscillations. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but the valuation is relatively high. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is weak. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [17]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is relatively high. For manganese - silicon, it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of out - of - the - money call options; for silicon - iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [18][19]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply. OPEC + plans to increase production in July, but the oil price is expected to rebound. It is advisable to consider long - position operations on the main crude - oil contract [20][21][22]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil fell sharply. The global trade demand is recovering, and the inventory decline supports the price. It is advisable to consider long - position operations on the main fuel - oil contract [23][24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The supply pressure persists, and the demand improvement is limited. Wait for the price to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures showed mixed performance. The demand is worried, and the inventory is accumulating. Wait for the price to stabilize and then consider long - position opportunities [28][29][30]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures rose slightly. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it mainly fluctuates with the macro - sentiment. It is in a bottom - range oscillation [31]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures fell. The short - term cost is decreasing, and the agricultural demand has not been released. It is advisable to consider going long at low levels [32][33][34]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures fell. The supply - demand structure is tight, but the PXN spread has recovered. It is advisable to trade with an oscillation mindset and pay attention to the cost and policies [35]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost is supported. It is advisable to operate in the low - range [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The short - term supply - demand game intensifies, and it is expected to oscillate [38]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The downstream demand is slightly improving, and the cost is supportive. It is advisable to participate cautiously at low levels [39]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The raw - material cost is supportive, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to the cost [40][41]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda - ash futures fell. The long - term supply exceeds demand, and the price is expected to oscillate steadily [42]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures fell. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the market sentiment is weak [43][44][45]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic - soda futures fell. The supply - demand is relatively loose, and regional differences are obvious. Attention should be paid to enterprise operations and liquid - chlorine prices [46]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures rose. The domestic and international supply is abundant, and the downstream consumption is weak. The price is expected to rebound briefly and then pay attention to production cuts and consumption - stimulating policies [47][48]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium - carbonate futures rose. The supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged, and the price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [49]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper futures fell. The US trade policy is changeable, but the basis for copper price increase still exists. It is advisable to consider long - position operations on Shanghai copper futures [50][51]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [52]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel futures rose. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to run weakly [53]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean - meal futures rose, and soybean - oil futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and it is advisable to wait and see for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options at the bottom [54][55]. Palm Oil - The BMD palm - oil market had certain fluctuations. The inventory is at a relatively low level. It is advisable to consider the opportunity of expanding the spread between rapeseed - palm oil and soybean - palm oil [56][57][58]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures fell. The domestic inventory situation is different for rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil. It is advisable to consider long - position opportunities after the decline of rapeseed meal [59][60]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures showed weak oscillations. The Sino - US trade relationship is uncertain. It is advisable to operate with a light position and consider long - position after the decline [61][62][63]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures fell. The Brazilian production is low, and the domestic inventory is low. Consider going long in batches [64][65][66]. Apple - Last trading day, domestic apple futures recovered from the bottom. The new - year production is uncertain. Consider long - position opportunities after the decline [67][68][69]. Live Pigs - The pig price showed certain fluctuations. The supply and demand are in a complex situation. Consider the positive - spread opportunity of the peak - season contract [70][71]. Eggs - Last trading day, egg futures rose. The supply is expected to increase in June. Consider short - selling after the rebound [72][73]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn - starch futures rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and it is advisable to wait and see for corn starch [74][75]. Logs - Last trading day, log futures rose. The supply is increasing, and the market has no obvious driving force [76][77].