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华金期货股指期货市场周报-20250603
Hua Jin Qi Huo·2025-06-03 10:07

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term index fluctuates, and investors are advised to buy on dips [4] - A - share market shows a situation where the macro environment is moderately loose, the profit situation has improved, but the capital situation is unfavorable, and the overall valuation is at a medium - low level, which is conducive to the long - term performance of the index [10][12][13] Summary by Directory I. Index Futures Macro and Market Outlook - Domestic News: In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points month - on - month [4] - Overseas News: JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon pointed out the risk of stagflation [4] - Market Situation: Last week, the CSI 300 index fluctuated weakly with low trading volume. In the past 5 trading days, the net outflow of main funds was 100.2 billion yuan, and the margin trading funds decreased by 100 million yuan. The domestic economy is weakly stabilizing, and fiscal and monetary policies remain loose. Technically, the CSI 300 index is above the 40 - day moving average, with low short - term trading volume and medium - low long - term valuation [4] - Viewpoint: Short - term index fluctuates, and investors are advised to buy on dips [4] II. Index Futures Market and Basis - Price and Volume: Index futures fluctuated weakly with low market trading volume [7] - Basis: The current index basis rate has declined, and there are no arbitrage opportunities in the index [7] - Return: Since 2024, Shanghai Composite 50 large - cap stocks have risen 16.86%, and CSI 1000 small - cap stocks have risen 2.93% [7] - Contract Data: The table shows the closing prices, weekly returns, trading volumes, open interests, and trading volume/open interest ratios of IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 contracts last week and this week [6] III. Index Macro and Earnings Growth - Macro: In April, the manufacturing PMI (49.4) was below the boom - bust line, the interest rate (1.72) was below 3%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8%, with moderate relaxation [10] - Profit: In the first quarter of A - shares, the year - on - year corporate net profit changed from a decline to an increase compared with the end of last year, and the net profit growth rate of the CSI 300 slightly declined [10] - Interest Rate: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds was 1.72%, up 1 BP from last week [10] IV. Index Capital and Valuation Changes - Capital: The margin trading balance of A - shares decreased by 100 million yuan in the past 5 trading days; the cumulative net outflow of main funds of A - shares was 100.2 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days [13] - Valuation: The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level. The rolling P/E ratio of the CSI 300 is 11.73, with a percentile of 38%; the P/B ratio is 1.29, with a percentile of 9% [12][13] V. Index Fundamental and Technical Analysis - Fundamentals - Macro Environment: Long - term and medium - term monetary policy is loose, interest rates are low, and the domestic economy is weakly stabilizing (bullish) [17] - Profit Situation: A - share corporate profits increased year - on - year in the first quarter (bullish) [17] - Capital Situation: Margin trading funds decreased, and main funds had a short - term net outflow (bearish) [17] - Valuation Situation: The current valuation is still at a medium - low level, which supports the index in the long - term (bullish) [17] - Technical Analysis: The CSI 300 index is near the medium - long - term moving average, with low trading volume, and short - term fluctuations are neutral [16]