宏观金融数据日报-20250603

Report Overview - The report is a macro financial data daily update released on June 3, 2025, by the Macro Financial Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [3]. Market and Liquidity Interest Rates - DR001 closed at 1.48% with a 6.98 bp increase; DR007 closed at 1.66% with a 3.15 bp increase [4]. - GC001 closed at 1.57% with an 11.50 bp increase; GC007 closed at 1.61% with no change [4]. - SHBOR 3M remained unchanged at 1.65%; LPR 5 - year decreased by 10.00 bp to 3.50% [4]. - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bond yields decreased by 1.82 bp, 3.02 bp, and 1.90 bp respectively; 10 - year US treasury bond yield decreased by 2.00 bp to 4.41% [4]. Central Bank Operations - In May, the central bank conducted 500 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net injection of 375 billion yuan after 125 billion yuan of MLF matured, marking the third consecutive month of increased roll - overs [4]. - Since May 15, 2025, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points for financial institutions (excluding those already implementing a 5% reserve requirement ratio), providing about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the financial market [4]. LPR and Deposit Rates - On May 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% (down from 3.1%), and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% (down from 3.6%) [5]. - On May 20, state - owned banks and some joint - stock banks lowered their deposit挂牌 rates, with the current deposit rate of state - owned banks falling below 0.1% and the 1 - year fixed - deposit rate falling below 1% [5]. Stock Index Index Performance - The prices of major stock indices decreased, with the CSI 300 down 0.48% to 3840, the SSE 50 down 0.45% to 2679, the CSI 500 down 0.85% to 5671, and the CSI 1000 down 1.03% to 6027 [6]. - The trading volumes and open interests of index futures contracts decreased, with IF volume down 12.8%, IH volume down 4.5%, IC volume down 26.2%, and IM volume down 23.9% [6]. Weekly Review - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 1.08% to 3840.2, the SSE 50 fell 1.22% to 2678.7, the CSI 500 rose 0.32% to 5671.1, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.62% to 6026.6 [6]. - Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, Medicine and Biology (2.2%), National Defense and Military Industry (2.1%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (1.8%), Computer (1.8%), and Media (1.7%) led the gains, while Automobile (-4.1%), Power Equipment (-2.4%), Non - ferrous Metals (-2.4%), Comprehensive (-1.9%), and Food and Beverage (-1.1%) led the losses [6]. - The daily trading volumes of A - shares last week were 967.2 billion yuan, 957.9 billion yuan, 971.9 billion yuan, 1132.6 billion yuan, and 1087.7 billion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 76.18 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6]. Market Commentary Trump's Tariff Policy - On May 28, the US International Trade Court halted Trump's tariffs under IEEPA, leading to a significant rebound in Chinese A - shares, especially small - and medium - cap stocks. However, on May 29, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals approved Trump's request to continue the tariff policy [7]. - On May 30, Trump announced an increase in the import steel tariff from 25% to 50%, effective from June 4 [7]. - On June 1, the US Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the Section 301 investigation on China's technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation practices from May 31, 2025, to August 31, 2025 [7]. Market Strategy - Domestic factors have limited influence on stock indices, with economic data, high - frequency real - estate consumption, and price data showing no obvious bright spots. After the central bank's comprehensive monetary policy support on May 7, the domestic policy is in a relative vacuum, and the need for the "national team" to support the market may decrease in the short term [7]. - Overseas variables drive short - term fluctuations in stock indices, but Trump's tariff policy is highly uncertain. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for index futures trading and avoid chasing the market blindly [7]. Index Futures Basis - The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM index futures contracts show different levels of premium or discount in different contracts, with the basis rates of different contracts for each index varying [8].