集运日报：特变量再出变数，班轮公司继续提涨6月下旬运价，盘面区间震荡，风险偏好者可考虑轻仓逢高试空-20250603

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is filled with a mix of long and short information, causing significant fluctuations in the market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] - It is necessary to focus on the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final result of the court ruling [3] Group 3: Summary of Specific Information Freight Index Information - On June 2, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1252.82 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1718.11 points, down 0.1% from the previous period [2] - On May 30, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1676.25 points, up 51.55% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1067.59 points, up 36.25% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 3585.23 points, up 89.23% from the previous period [2] - On May 30, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2072.71 points, up 486.59 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1587 USD/TEU, up 20.50% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 3275 USD/FEU, up 57.92% from the previous period [2] - On May 30, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1117.61 points, up 0.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1375.62 points, down 1.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 944.06 points, up 4.0% from the previous period [2] Market and Policy Information - The US has restored Trump's tariff policy, indicating that tariffs could reach up to 15%, and then extended partial exemptions for China under Section 301 tariffs. Some shipping companies raised freight rates for mid - to late June [3] - The US court's ruling that the government overstepped its authority may boost macro - sentiment, but the spot market remains weak in price support. The easing of the China - US trade war may lead to a rush to ship within 90 days [2] Contract Information - On May 30, the main contract 2508 closed at 2075.3, down 0.25%, with a trading volume of 102,700 lots and an open interest of 41,800 lots, a decrease of 4754 lots from the previous day [3] Strategy Information - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly short when it rebounds above 2250 and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where near - term freight rates are stronger than long - term ones. Pay attention to the court's ruling result, and for now, focus on positive arbitrage structures [4] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rallies, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4] Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4]