电解铝期货品种周报-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term trend of the electrolytic aluminum market is a large - range consolidation. The Fed's potential delay in interest rate cuts in the second half of the year and the tense international situation restrict the upward space of aluminum prices, while the first cut of domestic 1 - year and 5 - year LPR this year supports aluminum prices. The supply - demand relationship remains strong overall, but tariff disturbances are significant, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [4][12]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience a short - term decline followed by a rebound in the first week after the Dragon Boat Festival, but may face pressure around mid - June, with an overall expectation of a fluctuating market [12]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the 45 million - ton ceiling, and the annual output growth is limited. The global primary aluminum output growth rate is only 1.9%. The demand in the aluminum industry shows a differentiated pattern among different sectors, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at a historically low level [9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The mid - term trend is a large - range consolidation. The Fed's potential delay in interest rate cuts to July and December and the tense international situation restrict the upward space of aluminum prices, while the domestic LPR cut supports prices. The supply - demand relationship is strong overall, but tariff disturbances are large, and the market is expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to maintain the view of consolidation around 20,000, and short - term trading within the range of 19,500 - 20,500 is appropriate [4]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: For the SHFE aluminum 2507 contract, maintain the view of consolidation around 20,000, with an expected range of 19,800 - 20,500. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [6]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: For the SHFE aluminum 2507 contract, continue to maintain the view of consolidation around 20,000. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [7]. - Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises: It is advisable to purchase and stock up as needed [8]. 3.3 Overall View 3.3.1 Supply - related - Bauxite Market: The short - term supply of domestic bauxite will remain tight. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually emerging, and the bauxite shipment volume from Guinea is expected to decline significantly from June [9]. - Alumina Market: As of May 29, the total built - in capacity of national metallurgical alumina is 110.82 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 86.67 million tons/year. The weekly national alumina operating rate increased by 0.19 percentage points to 78.21% due to the end of some enterprises' overhauls, but the operating capacity is still at a low level [9]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In May, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to remain at a high level. The second - batch capacity replacement project of an aluminum plant from Shandong to Yunnan is expected to start in the third quarter, and the first - batch project is expected to achieve output in May. The global primary aluminum output growth rate is only 1.9% [9]. - Import and Export: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,000 yuan/ton, and the order growth due to pre - export rush at the end of May is not obvious [9]. 3.3.2 Demand - related - Aluminum Profiles: The national profile operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 57% this week. The building materials sector is supported by infrastructure project orders in the north, but some small and medium - sized enterprises in the north and south report limited infrastructure orders. The operating rate of photovoltaic frame sample enterprises shows a differentiated pattern [11]. - Aluminum Plate, Strip and Foil: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 67.6%. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 71.6%. The short - term operating rate of the aluminum foil industry is expected to rise slightly [11]. - Aluminum Cables and Wires: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable and wire enterprises remained stable at 64.8%. The follow - up operating rate is expected to remain within a certain range [11]. - Alloys: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 54.6%. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 53.0%, and the subsequent operating rate may continue to decline weakly [11]. 3.3.3 Inventory - related - Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 509,000 tons, a decrease of about 8% from last week and about 35% lower than the same period last year, at a low level since 2017. The aluminum rod inventory is 126,000 tons, a decrease of about 1% from last week and about 43% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been declining since May 2024 and is currently at a low level since 1990 [11]. 3.3.4 Profit and Market Expectation - Alumina Profit: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 700 yuan/ton [12]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Profit: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,300 yuan/ton [12]. - Market Expectation: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to continue to decline, but the trading atmosphere may weaken. The international situation may affect the overseas aluminum price and then the domestic spot aluminum price. Next week, the spot aluminum price is expected to fluctuate, and the trading range of electrolytic aluminum futures is 19,800 - 20,200 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of some bauxite varieties remained unchanged this week, while the price of alumina in Henan increased by 2.95% week - on - week. The price of ice晶石 increased by 9.11% week - on - week, and the price of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased by 0.42% week - on - week [13]. 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - Domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and it is expected that the arrival of aluminum ore at ports may decrease from June. Alumina inventory continued to decline slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum and related products such as aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is at a low level, and the LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly [15][17]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - For the whole year of 2025, domestic production growth is limited, and the import impact is weakened due to the inverted theoretical import profit. Domestic supply - demand is expected to tighten compared to 2024, but there is a high probability of becoming looser again in the seasonal off - season of June and July [18]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - SHFE Aluminum Futures Price Curve: The current SHFE aluminum futures price structure is neutral to strong. Under the situation of low inventory and pre - export rush expectation, the spot price supports the futures price [31]. - SHFE Aluminum Futures Price Monthly Seasonality: From the statistical data of the past 10 years, the probability of rise and fall in May and June is relatively balanced. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market may fluctuate slightly in the first week, but may face pressure around mid - June, with an overall expectation of a fluctuating market [35]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) discount is 5.75 US dollars/ton. The A00 aluminum ingot spot reported a premium of 110 yuan/ton. The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,260 yuan/ton this week [37][42]. 3.9 Market Fund Situation - LME Aluminum Variety Fund Trends: The latest net long position remained stable, and both the long and short camps increased their positions. The short - term market may be in a consolidation phase [45]. - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum Variety Fund Trends: The net short position remained stable this week, and both the long and short camps increased their positions, indicating increased market divergence. The short - term direction is not clear, and the market is expected to fluctuate [48].