瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina industry's profit has recovered, with an increasing number of restarted production facilities, which is expected to boost the demand for caustic soda. However, some non - aluminum industries have entered the off - season, with cautious purchasing and mainly for rigid demand. Industry maintenance and alumina stockpiling support the spot price, but the commissioning of new caustic soda plants from June to July and the uncertainty of downstream stockpiling demand bring an expectation of weakening supply - demand in the future. The price of near - month contracts is stronger than that of far - month contracts. The current main contract is at a low level with a high basis, so short - selling is not advisable [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2371 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the futures holding volume is 213,841 lots, up 37,370 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 25,227 lots, down 10,548 lots; the futures trading volume is 360,954 lots, down 275,199 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2271 yuan/ton, down 87 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2330 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ionic membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 880 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda is 379 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 655 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 49.5 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 125 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From May 23rd to 29th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.6%. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 392,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 2.08% and a year - on - year increase of 10.22% [3]. 3.7 Supply and Demand Analysis - The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda last week increased by 1.6% week - on - week to 84.1%. On the demand side, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.43% week - on - week to 79.53%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 0.3% week - on - week to 80.6%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.55% week - on - week to 62.68%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda plants last week decreased by 2.08% week - on - week to 392,600 tons, which is at a relatively high level in the same period [3].