HTSC(SH:601688) HWABAO SECURITIES·2025-06-03 10:11Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (2025.05.26 - 2025.05.30), the bond market oscillated and closed lower. The CBA00201 index basically closed flat, while the CBA00203 index closed down 0.08%. Yields of interest - rate bonds generally rose, with short - term yields rising more than long - term ones. Credit bond yields also generally increased, and major credit spreads mainly compressed [3][10]. - The capital market was relatively loose, but the economic fundamentals remained weak. The tariff policy was volatile, putting pressure on US Treasury bonds. The popularity of REITs continued, and assets were accelerating into the market [3]. - On May 29, 2025, the general pledge repurchase business of the first 9 credit bond ETFs was officially launched, which is conducive to the rapid development of the credit bond ETF market [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Pan - fixed - income Market Review and Observation - Bond Market Review: The bond market oscillated and closed lower last week. Interest - rate bond yields generally rose, and credit bond yields also increased. Major credit spreads mainly compressed. Specifically, from Monday to Wednesday, short - term credit bond yields rose, and long - term ones oscillated. On Thursday and Friday, due to the change in Trump's tariff policy, credit yields fluctuated significantly following interest rates [10]. - Capital and Economic Fundamentals: In May, the capital market was generally loose. After the interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, the monthly central levels of R001 and R007 declined. Affected by the end - of - month effect last week, the central level of R007 rose slightly to 1.70%. The economic fundamentals were still weak. Although the high - frequency data rebounded due to the rush to export after the reciprocal tariff reduction, domestic demand remained weak. The May PMI rebounded seasonally, but the manufacturing PMI was still below 50%. The new export orders in the manufacturing industry rebounded but were still lower than the March data and the first - quarter average. High - frequency data showed an increase in container shipping bookings to the US, which might improve the June fundamentals. However, domestic demand - priced commodities such as rebar, cement, glass, and asphalt saw price declines. The bond market faces both positive and negative factors, and a cautious approach of high - selling and low - buying may be appropriate [11]. - Tariff Policy and US Treasury Bonds: Since the reciprocal tariff implementation, US Treasury bonds have experienced two significant declines. In May, after the three major rating agencies downgraded US Treasury bonds, the market re - evaluated US debt risks. Last week, due to stable US economic data and a court ruling, US Treasury bonds rebounded slightly. Currently, the trading focus of US Treasury bonds has shifted back to the US fundamentals. There are risks of disorderly increases in US Treasury bond yields due to fiscal risks and tariff uncertainties. The stable US fundamentals have postponed the expected time of the Fed's interest rate cut, and tariff issues may reduce overseas demand for US Treasury bonds and cause short - term liquidity problems [12]. - REITs Market: REITs have both equity and bond characteristics. This year, due to factors such as the decline in bond yields and the expectation of economic recovery, the popularity of REITs has continued, with property - type assets performing better. After the asymmetric interest rate cut, REITs have entered a high - level consolidation phase, but some specific assets still have upward momentum. In the primary market, high - quality assets are entering the market at an accelerated pace. Last week, the expansion of two REITs was approved. Overall, the C - REITs market is in a stage of rapid expansion, but there are risks in the primary and secondary markets [13]. 1.2. Public Fund Market Dynamics - On May 29, 2025, the general pledge repurchase business of the first 9 credit bond ETFs was officially launched, expected to take effect on June 6. This business can broaden financing channels for investors, improve capital efficiency, and promote the development of the credit bond ETF market. Its application scenarios include obtaining liquidity through pledge, quickly switching asset allocation, and increasing returns through leverage [4][15]. 2. Pan - fixed - income Fund Index Performance Tracking | Index Classification | This Week | Last Month | YTD | Since Strategy Launch | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Short - term Bond Fund Preferred Index | 0.01% | 0.12% | 0.39% | 3.79% | | Medium - and Long - term Bond Fund Preferred Index | - 0.02% | 0.21% | 0.55% | 6.18% | | Low - volatility Fixed - income + Preferred Index | - 0.02% | 0.35% | 0.58% | 1.84% | | Medium - volatility Fixed - income + Preferred Index | - 0.01% | 0.53% | 0.56% | 1.08% | | High - volatility Fixed - income + Preferred Index | - 0.13% | 0.90% | 2.49% | 2.25% | | Convertible Bond Fund Preferred Index | - 0.03% | 1.05% | 3.68% | 6.92% | | QDII Bond Fund Preferred Index | 0.48% | - 0.48% | 2.21% | 7.14% | | REITs Fund Preferred Index | 0.90% | 5.80% | 29.00% | 37.79% | 2.1. Pure Bond Index Tracking - Short - term Bond Fund Preferred Index: Aims at liquidity management, pursues a smooth upward curve while controlling drawdowns. It consists of 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute return capabilities. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - term Pure Bond Fund Index + 50% * General Money Market Fund Index [17][18]. - Medium - and Long - term Bond Fund Preferred Index: Seeks stable returns by investing in medium - and long - term pure bond funds while controlling drawdowns. It aims for excess returns relative to the medium - and long - term bond fund index and a smooth upward net value curve. It selects 5 funds each period, balancing coupon strategies and band operations, and adjusting the duration and the ratio of credit bond funds to interest - rate bond funds according to market conditions [19]. 2.2. Fixed - income + Index Tracking - Low - volatility Fixed - income + Preferred Index: The equity center is set at 10%, and 10 funds are selected each period. It focuses on fixed - income + funds with an equity center of less than 15% in the past three years and recently, emphasizing both risk - return ratios and investment experience [23]. - Medium - volatility Fixed - income + Preferred Index: The equity center is 20%, and 5 funds are selected each period. It selects fixed - income + funds with an equity center between 15% and 25% in the past three years and recently, aiming for a certain level of performance elasticity while considering risk - return ratios [24]. - High - volatility Fixed - income + Preferred Index: The equity center is 30%, and 5 funds are selected each period. It selects fixed - income + funds with an equity center between 25% and 35% in the past three years and recently, focusing on funds with strong stock - picking abilities in the equity part and stable returns in the bond part [28]. 2.3. Convertible Bond Fund Preferred Index It selects 5 convertible bond funds from a sample space of funds with a high proportion of convertible bonds in their bond portfolios. The selection is based on an evaluation system considering factors such as fund performance, fund manager capabilities, and market adaptability [30][31]. 2.4. QDII Bond Fund Preferred Index Tracking It consists of 6 QDII bond funds with stable returns and good risk control, investing in overseas bonds in regions such as the global market, Asia, and emerging markets, including investment - grade and high - yield products [32]. 2.5. REITs Fund Preferred Index Tracking It consists of 10 REITs funds with stable operations, reasonable valuations, and a certain degree of elasticity, based on the types of underlying assets [36].