中信期货晨报：商品走势分化，黑色系及原油板块表现偏弱-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: After China and the US reached a tariff delay agreement, US consumer confidence was significantly boosted, but the improvement in the labor market was limited, and the long - term economic resilience needs further observation. Domestic macro: Manufacturing enterprises' profits and PMI maintained strong resilience. The report maintains the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China, and suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. For domestic assets, the export resilience and the window period of tariff relaxation support the economic growth rate in the second quarter. The bond market still has value for dip - buying after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound oscillations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The consumer confidence index jumped from 85.7 to 98.0 in May. Consumers were more optimistic about the economic outlook, but the labor market improvement was limited, and the long - term economic resilience was uncertain. - Domestic: From January to April, the total profits of large - scale industrial enterprises reached 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 percentage points. The export resilience and tariff relaxation window period support the economic growth rate in the second quarter. - Asset Views: Maintain the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. The bond market has dip - buying value after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities show short - term range - bound oscillations [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the short - term fiscal end implements established policies. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock Index Futures: There are external positives, and changes should be dealt with cautiously. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - Stock Index Options: Volatility is further suppressed. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - Treasury Bond Futures: Risk appetite rises, and the bullish sentiment in the bond market is suppressed. The short - term judgment is range - bound [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. The short - term judgment is range - bound [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: Pay attention to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term judgment is range - bound [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: The demand expectation is pessimistic, and spot transactions are weak. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - Iron Ore: The molten iron output decreased slightly, and the price oscillated. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - Coke: The off - season deepened, and the second round of price cuts was implemented. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Coking Coal: The supply pressure remained high, and there was little support below. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Other varieties such as silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash also have corresponding market logics, and most of the short - term judgments are range - bound [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The inventory continued to accumulate, and the copper price oscillated at a high level. The short - term judgment is range - bound increase. - Aluminum Oxide: The event of revoking the mining license was not finalized, and the alumina futures oscillated at a high level. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Other non - ferrous metal varieties such as aluminum, zinc, and lead also have corresponding market logics, and most of the short - term judgments are range - bound [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: There were more macro disturbances, and the supply pressure remained. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - LPG: The demand continued to weaken, and LPG maintained a weak range - bound oscillation. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Other energy and chemical varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil also have corresponding market logics, and the short - term judgments vary from range - bound decline to range - bound increase [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Pork: The expectation of inventory reduction drove the futures price of pork to rebound. The short - term judgment is range - bound decline. - Rubber: The warehouse receipts continued to be cancelled, and NR rebounded strongly. The short - term judgment is range - bound. - Other agricultural products such as cotton, sugar, and logs also have corresponding market logics, and most of the short - term judgments are range - bound [9].