2025年6月基金投资策略：海外债务困局下的全球资产配置思考

Core Insights - The global economy is facing multiple challenges, including inflation, debt pressure, and structural risks in asset valuation, reshaping financial markets [1] - The report emphasizes the need to focus on certainty and seek assets with a high safety margin in the current market environment [1] - Fund allocation for June 2025 should consider three core dimensions: 1) deepening overseas inflation, debt pressure, and asset structural risks; 2) domestic economic stabilization driven by consumption and technological innovation; 3) rebalancing risks and opportunities in alternative assets amid rising risk aversion [1] Market Review - As of May 29, 2025, global equity assets performed well, with MSCI global returning 1.1% and the CSI All Share Index returning 0.6% [6] - Domestic bond assets remained stable despite increased volatility in interest rate bonds, with the CSI All Bond Index rising 0.44% over the past six months [6] - Commodity assets, particularly gold and oil, experienced increased volatility due to geopolitical factors and changes in overseas policies [6] Market Outlook - The report highlights that the manufacturing PMI in Europe and Japan has been below the growth line for ten consecutive months, indicating significant pressure on these economies [15] - The U.S. protectionism and isolationism are disrupting global economic growth, leading to structural price increases and new inflation issues [17] - The report warns of increasing structural risks in global asset valuations, particularly in long-term government bonds, which may face selling pressure due to rising yields [20] Asset Allocation Recommendations Equity Funds - Domestic equity assets are considered relatively attractive due to high valuation ratios amid overseas economic cycles peaking and increasing debt pressure [2] - Core allocation should focus on high certainty in performance, high profits, and high dividends, particularly in dividend and large-cap funds [2] - Opportunities should be sought in policy-driven, confidence-driven, and technology-enabled sectors, with a focus on consumer improvement and sectors like chips, AI, and new energy [2] Fixed Income Funds - The report suggests lowering expectations and seeking stable returns, with a preference for medium to short-duration funds due to the overvaluation of long-duration bonds [2] - Financial bonds and interest rate bonds are recommended for stable investors, with a potential for credit risk to be managed through appropriate credit downgrades [2] QDII Funds - Caution is advised for equity QDII investments due to structural valuation risks, while low PB value stocks in Europe and Hong Kong may perform better [3] - Oil QDII investments should be approached with caution due to OPEC+ production increases and declining global oil demand expectations [3] - Gold QDII is expected to perform well in the medium to long term due to rising sovereign debt risks and persistent investor risk aversion [3] Domestic Economic Analysis - The domestic economy is stabilizing with a focus on new and old energy transitions, supported by consumption policies and technological innovation [21] - The GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 was 5.4%, driven by increased consumption and exports [21] - The report notes that consumer spending is gradually recovering, with retail sales growing by 5.1% year-on-year in April 2025 [21] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies high dividend assets and banking stocks as having attractive valuation ratios in the current environment [37] - The technology sector, particularly in semiconductors and AI, is highlighted for its growth potential due to domestic innovation and policy support [37] - Consumer sectors are expected to continue improving, driven by consumption upgrades and digital economy developments [37]