MEITUAN(HK:03690) Guoxin Securities·2025-06-03 10:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The core local business of Meituan has shown excellent profit release, with a revenue of 86.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year growth. Adjusted net profit reached 10.9 billion yuan, up 46% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13%, an increase of 3 percentage points [1][9][19] - The company is expected to increase subsidies starting Q2 2025 to respond to competition, with projected order volume growth of 9% and revenue growth of 5% in the same period [2][19] - The flash purchase business saw a 30% year-on-year increase in order volume in Q1 2025, with a historical high profit margin, and the company plans to increase subsidies during the 618 shopping festival to expand market reach [3][22] - The in-store business GTV grew by 33% in Q1 2025, with a revenue increase of 21% year-on-year, and the company is actively expanding in lower-tier cities [4][23] - New business revenue grew by 19% year-on-year to 22.2 billion yuan, with a focus on expanding overseas delivery services, particularly in Saudi Arabia and plans to enter the Brazilian market [27] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, Meituan's core local business achieved a revenue of 64.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. The operating profit for this segment was 13.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 39% increase year-on-year and an operating profit margin of 21% [1][17] - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 44.7 billion yuan, 58.7 billion yuan, and 71.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.6, 12.6, and 10.3 [7][29] - The adjusted EPS is projected to be 7.14 yuan for 2024, increasing to 9.50 yuan by 2027 [8][32]