瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views of the Report - The Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed sharply lower on Monday, with the benchmark contract down 3.42%, breaking below the recent support level due to speculative long - position liquidation [2]. - The U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate as of June 1, 2025, was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. The fast planting progress and good good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans continue to constrain the U.S. soybean market. However, heavy rains in Argentina in mid - to - late May may damage the soybean harvest, which boosts the market [2]. - In the domestic market, since this month, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, the oil mill operating rate has significantly increased, and the supply has become more ample, putting pressure on the meal market prices. For rapeseed meal, after the tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal is increased, the direct import pressure will significantly decline, and the supply is likely to tighten later. But the new import of Indian rapeseed meal and relatively high short - term inventory pressure drag on the rapeseed meal market price [2]. - The short - term market still focuses on the tight inventory of old - crop Canadian rapeseed. The growth of Canadian rapeseed has entered the "weather - dominated" stage. Last week, the weather in the Canadian prairie region was hot, dry, and with little precipitation, raising concerns about drought risks. However, the weather forecast shows that there will be beneficial rainfall in the prairie region this week [2]. - The palm oil producing areas have entered the seasonal production - increasing season, with increased output pressure. However, the improvement in export demand supports the palm oil market. India's reduction of CPO import tariffs may further benefit Malaysian palm oil exports, which boosts the domestic oil market. In the domestic market, the high inventory pressure of oil mills continues to constrain the market price, but the relatively firm price of Canadian rapeseed provides cost support for the domestic rapeseed oil market [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9272 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan; rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2557 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 686.1 Canadian dollars/ton, down 24.9 Canadian dollars; rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5266 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (9 - 1) was 162 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; rapeseed meal (9 - 1) was 244 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil main contract positions were 295183 hands, down 2199 hands; rapeseed meal main contract positions were 552037 hands, down 18839 hands [2]. - Top 20 futures positions: Net long positions of rapeseed oil were 26574 hands, down 3638 hands; net long positions of rapeseed meal were - 27832 hands, down 25527 hands [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 0, unchanged; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 27429, down 162 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8020 yuan/ton, unchanged; 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8750 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2900 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference was 1540 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference was 930 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference was 360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; oil - meal ratio was 3.64, down 0.06 [2]. - Average price: The average price of rapeseed oil was 9563.75 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5095.95 yuan/ton, down 157.35 yuan [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 212 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; rapeseed meal main contract basis was - 17 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 85.17 million tons, down 1.01 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 48.92 million tons, up 24.24 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 23.72%, up 5.86 percentage points; the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 15.04 million tons, down 0.51 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 2 million tons, down 0.35 million tons [2]. - Pressing profit: The imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 55 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4167 billion yuan, down 68 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 20.96%, down 1.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 20.97%, down 1.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.61%, down 0.05 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.63%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 17.88%, up 1.93 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 27.09%, up 0.33 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 10.84%, up 0.66 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 15.92%, down 0.17 percentage points [2].