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互联网板块深度回调,多重压力下市场震荡
Guoyuan Securities2·2025-06-03 10:44

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook on the internet sector, indicating that the Hang Seng Technology Index is experiencing downward pressure due to external policy shocks, internal performance divergence, and liquidity rebalancing [4][36]. Core Insights - The decline in the Hang Seng Technology Index is attributed to a combination of external policy shocks, such as US tariff escalations and high US Treasury yields, alongside weak domestic PMI and underperforming internet company earnings [4][36]. - Despite the current downturn, the sector's valuation remains at historical lows, with the Hang Seng Technology Index PE percentile at 15%, suggesting limited downside potential [4][36]. - The report highlights the importance of trade negotiations and Federal Reserve decisions as key factors influencing market trends, with a recommendation to focus on specific companies like浪潮数字企业 (596.HK), 赤子城科技 (9911.HK), and 美兰空港 (357.HK) [4][36]. Market Performance Summary - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index saw weekly declines of -1.32% and -1.46%, respectively, while US indices experienced gains, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rising by +1.60%, +1.88%, and +2.01% [5][6]. - The software and services sector's PE-TTM stands at 22.1x, while the PS-TTM is at 4.32x, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical standards [12][14]. - The internet technology, e-commerce, and social media sectors within the US market have shown significant declines, with the Nasdaq 100 Index's dynamic PE valuation at approximately 33.2 [14][36]. Industry Data - The Chinese software industry reported a revenue of over 4 trillion yuan in the first four months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.8% [32]. - The gaming market in China reached a size of 273.51 billion yuan in April 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 21.93% [30]. - The film industry saw a total box office of 4.80 billion yuan in the week of May 26 to June 1, 2025, with a notable increase in audience turnout during the Dragon Boat Festival [28].