瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250603

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Affected by tariffs and geopolitical tensions, the Shanghai precious metals market closed higher across the board. Trump's decision to raise steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% led to a sharp increase in market risk - aversion, causing a significant short - term rise in gold prices. [2] - In the short term, gold may face insufficient upward momentum. The US May ISM Manufacturing PMI hit a new low since November 2024, indicating potential upward pressure on the economy. [2] - Fed officials' dovish signals on interest - rate cuts have boosted expectations of Fed rate cuts. Global gold ETFs showed a net outflow in May, but central bank gold purchases have offset some of the outflows. [2] - Geopolitical risks are continuously rising, which has continuously boosted the safe - haven property of gold. Silver has maintained a strong trend due to the strength of gold prices, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline in the short term. [2] - In the long term, the US debt problem may lead to a long - term global de - dollarization trend, which is structurally beneficial to gold prices. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged, and it may maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 783.1 yuan/gram, up 11.3 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 8456 yuan/kg, up 238 yuan. [2] - The positions of the Shanghai Gold main contract were 180,833 lots, down 413 lots; the positions of the Shanghai Silver main contract were 370,146 lots, up 36,120 lots. [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 125,869 lots, up 888 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 144,704 lots, down 8,409 lots. [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 17,247 kg, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1,068,846 kg, up 1,961 kg. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 781.3 yuan/gram, up 14.8 yuan; the silver spot price was 8425 yuan/kg, up 245 yuan. [2] - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 1.8 yuan/gram, up 3.5 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 31 yuan/kg, up 7 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand - Gold ETF holdings were 933.07 tons, up 2.87 tons; silver ETF holdings were 14,351.82 tons, up 48.07 tons. [2] - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 174,184 contracts, up 10,203 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 53,012 contracts, up 2,970 contracts. [2] - The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. [2] - The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces. [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 22.57%, up 0.36 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 27.14%, down 0.12 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 23.13%, down 0.28 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.14%, down 0.27 percentage points. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The EU is deeply regretful about Trump's decision to raise steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% on June 4, which has increased economic uncertainty across the Atlantic. [2] - The Trump administration has requested the federal appellate court to block the order of the former District of Columbia Federal District Court ruling its tariff policy as "illegal". [2] - The Institute of International Finance has warned that the soaring US debt may trigger a global bond - market crisis. [2] - Fed official Goolsbee said that the direct impact of tariffs on the economy is unexpectedly limited, and interest rates are expected to decline in the next 12 - 18 months. [2] - The US May ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.5, a new low since November 2024. [2]