Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-03 10:42Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of Shanghai lead has declined, which provides some support for prices. However, the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Although the inventory has decreased, the overseas inventory remains high, putting significant pressure on lead prices. Attention should be paid to the new impacts brought by changes in tariff policies. Technically, it is currently in a triangular consolidation structure with decreasing trading volume, and a long - option volatility strategy can be considered. Operationally, it is recommended to go short on rallies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,570 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,981 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars. The 07 - 08 contract spread of Shanghai lead is 0 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest is 90,698 lots, up 4,827 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 1,338 lots, up 236 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 40,316 tons, up 897 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 46,500 tons, down 1,928 tons; the LME lead inventory is 284,150 tons, down 2,025 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,375 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,580 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 195 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 22.17 US dollars/ton, up 2.09 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 15,704 yuan, down 241 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,420 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 51.28%, down 3.13 percentage points; the output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 73.88%, down 0.78 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.43 tons, down 0.02 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 30 US dollars/kiloton, down 10 US dollars; the global lead mine output of ILZSG is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons; the lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of the scrap battery market is 9,946.43 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 41,450 units, down 425 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,175 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,657.33 points, down 7.41 points. The monthly automobile output is 260.4 tons, down 44.06 tons; the monthly output of new - energy vehicles is 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons [2]. Industry News - Teck Resources' Carmen de Andacollo open - pit copper mine in Chile will be shut down for about a month due to mechanical failures, but it will not have a significant impact on the 2025 output. The mine will reschedule some factory maintenance work to mitigate the impact. Teck plans to produce 490,000 - 565,000 tons of copper this year. On the macro - level, European and American trade officials will meet on Wednesday, and the EU has reiterated its warning of tariff countermeasures [2]. Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, primary lead smelters' operating rate and output have declined due to unclear lead prices. The loss pressure of recycled lead has increased, and the subsequent production increase is difficult. The 1 lead price has dropped by 25 yuan/ton to 16,375 yuan/ton, and the scrap battery price has fluctuated. On the demand side, the market transaction is weak, and the support for lead prices is limited. The demand for charging piles and automobiles has slowed down. The overseas inventory has slightly decreased but remains high, and the domestic inventory has decreased significantly due to production decline. The lead concentrate processing fee remains low, affecting the resumption of production of recycled and primary lead [2][3].