中泰期货烧碱周报：SH06合约临近交割仓单数量为0，烧碱期货呈现近强远弱格局-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the maintenance of liquid caustic soda enterprises in Shandong will increase, leading to a decline in supply. The output of alumina enterprises in Shandong is steadily recovering, and the liquid caustic soda receipts of large - scale alumina factories in Shandong continue to grow, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is expected that these enterprises can reserve a certain amount of liquid caustic soda safety stock during the maintenance of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises for normal alumina production. Before the holiday, due to the low futures price, no effective warehouse receipts were formed. The near - month SH06 contract rose significantly, but the main SH2509 contract lacked follow - up momentum. The market is in an environment of strong reality and weak expectation. Against the backdrop of the overall weakness of bulk commodity futures, this is understandable. Although there are investors concerned about the chlor - alkali cost, and the cost is likely to decline considering the significant drop in coal and grid electricity prices, for caustic soda futures, the far - month contracts can factor in cost issues, while the near - month contracts should focus more on supply - demand factors rather than cost disturbances. Relevant contract arbitrage opportunities can be seized [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chlor - Alkali Overview - Supply: Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with an annual output of 200,000 tons or more was 84.1%, a 1.6% week - on - week increase. The restart or reduction in the Northwest, North, and East China slightly increased the load, while the new maintenance and production - reduction devices in Central and South China decreased the load. The capacity utilization rate in Shandong increased by 1.8% to 89.7%. This week, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda will be around 84.7%, with a weekly output of about 819,600 tons [8]. - Demand: - Alumina: In Shandong, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers has been increasing since April 13, reaching 840 yuan/ton, with a converted 100% price of 2,625 yuan/ton. Currently, alumina enterprises are in the inventory replenishment cycle, and the short - term consumption of liquid caustic soda is expected to remain strong [8]. - Viscose staple fiber: The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry remains around 80.17%, with a slight week - on - week decrease in output. The demand side has not improved, as the downstream human cotton yarn market has a general trading atmosphere, with prices remaining stagnant. Downstream manufacturers have a certain risk - aversion sentiment and weak inventory - building willingness, mostly purchasing on a just - in - time basis [8]. - Printing and dyeing: The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 62.68%, a 0.55% week - on - week decrease. Some printing and dyeing factories in Shaoxing have holiday plans around the Dragon Boat Festival, adjusting their schedules according to order volumes. The core issue is the decline in upstream weaving orders, which has led to insufficient white fabric storage in dyeing factories and a passive reduction in the operating rate of dye vats [8]. - Export: In April, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 335,800 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 55,200 tons [8]. - Inventory: Last week, the factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with an annual output of 200,000 tons or more in China was 392,600 wet tons, a 2.08% week - on - week decrease and a 10.22% year - on - year increase. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in China was 23.28%, a 1.01% week - on - week decrease. The storage capacity ratios in Northeast and South China increased week - on - week, while those in Northwest, North, Central, and East China decreased, and that in Southwest China remained stable. Overall, the inventory showed a certain decline [8]. - Profit: Last Friday, the price of liquid caustic soda, liquid chlorine, and raw salt in Shandong remained stable, and the chlor - alkali profit increased to 601 yuan/ton, reaching a high level in the same period of history [8]. - Valuation: - 9 - 1 spread: The strong spot price has attracted many investors to participate in the 9 - 1 positive spread, causing the SH2509 contract to generally weaken [8]. - Basis: The current caustic soda futures ignore the strong spot reality and focus on the expectation of weak future demand. The futures are at a discount to the spot, and it is not recommended to carry out selling hedging operations at the current basis [8]. 3.2 Chlor - Alkali Prices - Shandong Chlor - Alkali Spot Prices: Data on the minimum ex - factory converted 100% prices of 32% and 50% caustic soda in Shandong from 2022 to 2025, the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda, and the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong from 2022 to 2025 are presented [13]. - Flake Caustic Soda Prices and Export Caustic Soda Prices: Data on the prices of flake caustic soda in Shandong and Inner Mongolia from 2021 to 2025, and the FOB prices of 50% liquid caustic soda and 99% flake caustic soda in North China from 2021 to 2025 are provided [16]. - Liquid Caustic Soda Futures Prices, Spreads, and Basis: Data on the basis of the main contracts of 32% and 50% caustic soda in Shandong from 2023 to 2025, the price of the main caustic soda contract from 2023 to 2025, and the spread between the SH09 and SH01 contracts in 2024 and 2025 are shown [19]. - Raw Salt and Coal Prices: Data on the price of Shandong sea salt from 2021 to 2025, the CIF price of Indian sea salt first - grade industrial salt from 2021 to 2025, and the ex - warehouse price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5000K from 2021 to 2025 are given [22][23]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Caustic Soda Supply, Inventory, and Profit: Data on the caustic soda output from 2021 to 2025, the liquid caustic soda inventory from 2021 to 2025, and the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises from 2022 to 2025 are presented [28]. - Caustic Soda Maintenance: Information on the maintenance status of caustic soda production facilities last week, including the regions, enterprise names, caustic soda production capacities, and maintenance details, as well as the planned future maintenance of caustic soda production facilities, is provided [30]. 3.4 Chlor - Alkali Demand - Caustic Soda Downstream - Alumina: Data on the price of alumina in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, the profit of alumina in Shandong from 2022 to 2025, and the alumina output in China in 2024 and 2025 are shown [34]. - Caustic Soda Downstream - Viscose Staple Fiber and Printing and Dyeing: Data on the weekly output of viscose staple fiber from 2021 to 2025, the factory inventory of viscose staple fiber from 2021 to 2025, the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China from 2021 to 2025, and the price of viscose staple fiber (1.2D*38mm) in East China from 2021 to 2025 are presented [37]. - Caustic Soda Downstream - Pulp and Paper: Data on the paper product output from 2022 to 2025 and the available inventory days of paper products in upstream factories from 2022 to 2025 are provided [40]. - Caustic Soda Consumption - Export: Data on the monthly export volume of liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and total caustic soda in China from 2021 to 2025, as well as the cumulative export volume and year - on - year growth rate of caustic soda in China from 2021 to 2025, are shown [43]. - Liquid Chlorine Downstream - Propylene Oxide: Data on the price of propylene oxide in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, the profit of propylene oxide in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, the output of propylene oxide from 2022 to 2025, and the operating rate of propylene oxide from 2022 to 2025 are presented [46].