地产行业周报：年中冲刺临近，成交环比有望延续回升-20250603

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - As the mid-year sprint approaches, transaction volume is expected to continue its month-on-month recovery. In May, the number of new homes sold in 50 key cities decreased by 5.3% year-on-year but increased by 9.1% month-on-month. The top 100 real estate companies managed a total of 294.58 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.5% [3] - The report emphasizes that "good products" and "core areas in first and second-tier cities" are likely to stabilize first. Although the real estate market in some cities has slightly cooled down in Q2 2025, there is no need for excessive concern. Factors such as sufficient adjustment time in the market and recent interest rate cuts are expected to ease home-buying pressure [3] - Short-term market fluctuations are anticipated, but investors are advised to focus on medium-term positioning. The trend of stabilization in "good products" and "core areas" remains unchanged, with some hot cities expected to recover in Q4 2024 [3] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in key cities showed a month-on-month increase, with 22,000 new homes sold in the week of May 24-30, up 5.8% from the previous week. However, second-hand home transactions in 20 key cities decreased by 9.4% [9] - Inventory slightly decreased, with a total of 91.32 million square meters in 16 cities, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.1% and a de-stocking cycle of 18.4 months [12] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a 0.95% increase last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 1.08%. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the real estate sector is 39.43 times, placing it in the 95.64th percentile over the past five years [18] - The issuance of domestic real estate bonds increased to 4.91 billion yuan last week, with a net financing amount that also rose [15] Individual Stock Recommendations - Companies to watch include those with lighter historical burdens and strong product capabilities, such as China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and Poly Development. Additionally, companies like New Town Holdings and Vanke A are recommended for valuation recovery [3][24]