丰水期预期转向现实，工业硅加速下跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Bearish [1] - Medium - term: Sideways [1] - Long - term: Sideways [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - In May, industrial silicon prices dropped significantly. The main contract 2507 fell by 16.6%. With the approaching of the wet season in the southwest region and the复产 plans of some Xinjiang manufacturers, supply pressure increased. Meanwhile, downstream demand was weak, and tariff issues were uncertain, leading to continuous price drops and a record low of 7130 points [1]. - The fundamentals of industrial silicon remain weak. Supply is expected to increase, downstream demand is generally stable or weak, and high inventory pressure suppresses prices. The key points in June are whether price drops can trigger large - scale production cuts and whether southwest region's复产 will be postponed [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In May, the industrial silicon market declined. Organic silicon manufacturers continued to cut production, polysilicon was affected by the under - expected 430 installation rush, and Trump's tariff policy was uncertain. The price hit a new low of 7130 yuan/ton. Spot prices also decreased: non - oxygen - blown 553 was at 8350 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton from last month; oxygen - blown 553 was at 8500 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton; 421 was at 10600 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 Cost - profit - In May, the national cost of industrial silicon decreased slightly. Electricity prices in the southwest region dropped, and the prices of silica, silicon coal, and electrodes also declined. The average loss of industrial silicon producers increased compared to last month. As of the latest data, the average profit of 553 nationwide was about - 2001 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.2 Supply - In May, the national industrial silicon output was 290,000 tons, about 10,000 tons less than in April, mainly due to production cuts in the northwest region. Xinjiang's output decreased by nearly 10,000 tons. The output in the southwest region remained stable. With the approaching wet season, there are expectations of复产 in the southwest and some northwest manufacturers also have复产 plans. The focus in June is on the scale of southwest region's复产 and Xinjiang's复产 intensity [18]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon - In May, polysilicon prices slightly declined. After the 430 and 531 installation rushes ended, downstream component and battery prices dropped, forcing polysilicon prices down. Polysilicon enterprises are producing according to quotas. With the weakening domestic installation expectations in the second half of the year, downstream silicon wafer manufacturers are expected to cut production and purchase polysilicon as needed. There was a rumor of stockpiling, but its feasibility needs to be discussed. The inventory of polysilicon is close to 260,000 tons, and the destocking pressure is high. The focus in June is on polysilicon output and downstream silicon wafer procurement [23]. 3.2.4 Organic Silicon - In May, organic silicon prices stabilized. The DMC price was 11,500 yuan/ton, with a slight increase at the end of the month. The joint production cuts by organic silicon enterprises have shown initial results, but the over - capacity situation has not improved. Monomer plants and industrial chain enterprises are still in losses, and downstream real estate demand has not improved significantly. In April, the DMC output was 168,500 tons, a 10% year - on - year decrease. Although real estate policies are being promoted, it will take time to have a substantial impact on organic silicon demand, and currently, the demand for industrial silicon is weakening [27]. 3.2.5 Silicon Aluminum Alloy - In May, the prices of silicon aluminum alloy continued to decline, and the operating rate decreased slightly. Terminal demand was average. Since the overall silicon consumption is small, it has little impact on the demand for industrial silicon, and the demand remains stable [32]. 3.2.6 Import and Export - Industrial silicon exports increased slightly. In April 2025, China's metal silicon exports were 60,000 tons, a 1% year - on - year increase but a nearly 9% month - on - month decrease. Affected by the US trade war, exports are expected to decline slightly, and overseas demand is weak [46]. 3.2.7 Inventory - In May, the social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly compared to April. As of the latest data, the total social inventory was about 589,000 tons. Although there was some destocking at the end of May, the inventory is still at a high level. With the production cuts in the two major downstream sectors, it is difficult to achieve significant destocking [48].