MEITUAN(HK:03690) Orient Securities·2025-06-03 11:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan with a target price of 172.90 HKD [6][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Meituan's performance in Q1 2025 was better than expected, driven by growth in its ecosystem and overseas expansion despite short-term impacts from delivery subsidies [12][21]. - The report projects a high single-digit growth in food delivery orders, with improvements in user engagement and supply-side offerings contributing to revenue growth [2][9]. - Instant retail is expected to see approximately 30% growth in order volume, with strong brand operations enhancing performance [3][9]. - The hotel and travel segment is forecasted to grow over 30% in transaction value, with ongoing category expansion and improved consumer recognition through membership benefits [4][9]. - New business segments, particularly community group buying, are showing signs of reduced losses, and international expansion efforts are being actively pursued [4][9]. Summary by Sections Food Delivery - Q1 2025 food delivery orders are expected to grow in the high single digits, with improved user stickiness and frequency of purchases [2]. - Revenue growth is anticipated to outpace order volume growth due to enhanced advertising monetization and effective subsidies [2]. - Meituan plans to invest 100 billion CNY over the next three years to promote high-quality development in the industry [2]. Instant Retail - Q1 2025 instant retail orders are projected to grow by about 30%, with over 500 million transaction users and a significant increase in non-food orders [3]. - The establishment of over 30,000 instant warehouses is expected to enhance order volume contributions [3]. Hotel and Travel - The hotel and travel segment is expected to see a GTV growth of over 30% in Q1 2025, with ongoing product category expansion [4]. - Revenue growth is anticipated to be lower than GTV growth due to advertising revenue impacts [4]. New Business and International Expansion - New business revenue reached 22.2 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 19% [4]. - Meituan's community group buying segment is expected to continue reducing losses, while international expansion plans include significant investments in markets like Brazil [4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts a revenue of 385.2 billion CNY for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [13]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected at 36.9 billion CNY, with an EPS of 6.04 CNY [10][13].