2025年6月PX、PTA、MEG策略报告-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The maintenance season for PX, PTA, and MEG is coming to an end, and demand negative feedback is gradually emerging [2][152]. - For PX, as of May 30, the Asian PX operating load was 72%, a month - on - month increase of 4.1 percentage points; the Chinese PX operating load was 82.1%, a month - on - month increase of 8.9 percentage points. There are still some device maintenance plans from June to July, especially concentrated in July, with tight supply - demand. The cost side is expected to continue to be under pressure, but the PX fundamentals are expected to be favorable, supporting price and PXN profit repair [152]. - For PTA, as of May 30, the PTA operating load was 76.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 percentage points. In June, more PTA devices will restart, and there are still maintenance plans for some devices. There is an expectation of increased supply. The polyester operating load may show a slight downward trend in June. With increased supply and stable demand, the TA price faces upward pressure [152]. - For MEG, as of May 29, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 59.83% (a month - on - month decrease of 8.6%), and the operating load of synthetic gas - based ethylene glycol was 57.19% (a month - on - month decrease of 5.02%). The cost of coal - based production has decreased, and the subsequent production is expected to increase. With increased supply and stable demand, the EG price may show a weak and volatile trend [152]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 PX&PTA&MEG Price: Following Crude Oil Price Fluctuations - Futures Prices: From April 30 to May 30, 2025, PTA futures closing price increased by 266 yuan/ton (6.0%), MEG increased by 194 yuan/ton (4.7%), and PX increased by 406 yuan/ton (6.5%) [6]. - PTA Basis and Spread: The PTA basis and spread showed certain changes from April to May 2025, with the basis expanding significantly [15]. - MEG Basis and Spread: Similar to PTA, the MEG basis and spread also changed, and the basis expanded [12][15]. - TA - EG Spread: From April 30 to May 30, 2025, the TA - EG spread increased by 72 yuan/ton (25.8%) [18]. - TA - PX Processing Spread: From April 30 to May 30, 2025, the TA - PX * 0.656 spread remained unchanged [22]. - Domestic and Overseas Ethylene Glycol Spread: From April 30 to May 29, 2025, the price difference between domestic and overseas ethylene glycol changed, with the European - Chinese spread decreasing by 34.1% [25]. - PX - Related Spreads: The spreads between PX and crude oil, MX, and naphtha all changed from April to May 2025 [28]. 3.2 PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Maintenance Implementation - PX: As of May 30, Asian and Chinese PX operating loads increased. There are still maintenance plans from June to August, especially in July, with a concentrated supply loss of 24.8 million tons [33][37][152]. - PTA: As of May 30, the PTA operating load decreased. In June, more devices will restart, and there are still some maintenance plans. New device production is expected to increase supply [35][152]. - MEG: As of May 29, the overall MEG operating load in mainland China decreased. There are maintenance and restart plans for domestic and overseas devices in different months [53][55][56][57]. 3.3 PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: High Global Trade Concerns - PX: In April 2025, China's PX imports decreased. The decrease was due to device maintenance, reduced downstream demand, and tariff concerns [63]. - PTA: In April 2025, China's PTA exports increased. The main export destinations include Turkey, Egypt, etc. [65]. - MEG: In April 2025, China's MEG imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The main import sources are Saudi Arabia, Canada, etc. [68]. - Polyester Products: In April 2025, China's polyester product exports reached a record high for the same period. Different polyester products showed different export trends [71]. 3.4 PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Rising Downstream Raw Material Inventory - PTA: PTA polyester factories' raw material inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [91]. - MEG: As of May 26, the MEG port inventory in the East China main port area was about 68.7 million tons, showing a de - stocking trend [94]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Underperforms Expectations - Domestic Polyester Data: In May 2025, compared with April, the polyester load decreased slightly, while the load of some related equipment increased. The inventory days and cash flow of some products changed [97]. - Terminal Demand: Terminal demand support is insufficient, and the inventory of polyester yarns has increased. The digestion of the weaving industry is weak, but the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City is expected to recover [98][101][103]. - Textile and Garment Exports: In April 2025, China's textile and garment exports increased year - on - year, with different trends for textiles and clothing [112]. - Domestic Garment Retail: In April 2025, the retail sales of domestic clothing - related products increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [115]. 3.6 PX&PTA&MEG Position Situation - PTA Futures Position: On May 30, 2025, the PTA futures total position increased compared with April [126]. - MEG Futures Position: On May 30, 2025, the MEG futures total position increased compared with April [126]. - PX Futures Position: On May 30, 2025, the PX futures total position increased compared with April [126].