瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the corn market, the US corn has a good improvement rate, and Sino - US trade relations have eased, but there is long - term import pressure. In the domestic market, the procurement enthusiasm of feed enterprises in the Northeast is average, the trading volume of trade grains is slow, and the market purchase and sales are light. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, with the progress of wheat harvest, the use of wheat for feed has increased, and the sentiment of traders is bearish. The corn futures price fell again today, with a decrease in positions, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term, so short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For the corn starch market, affected by high raw material costs, large industry losses, and the substitution of competing products, the industry operating rate continues to decline. The spot price is relatively firm due to reduced supply pressure, but the downstream digestion ability is limited, and the industry inventory remains high. Affected by the decline of corn, the starch futures price also declined, and short - term participation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2325 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2651 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan. Corn monthly spread (9 - 1) is 110 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (7 - 9) is - 76 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. Corn futures positions (active contract) are 1079783 lots, down 36987 lots; corn starch futures positions (active contract) are 221312 lots, up 4731 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn are - 85598 lots, up 5462 lots; for corn starch, they are - 8781 lots, down 977 lots. The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn are 216019 lots, down 400 lots; for corn starch, they are 24472 lots, down 380 lots. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 375 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. 3.2 Outer - disk Market - The closing price of CBOT corn futures (active contract) is 438.25 cents/bushel, down 5.25 cents. The total positions of CBOT corn are 1654814 contracts, up 16858 contracts. The non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are - 20333 contracts, down 8781 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2383.33 yuan/ton, up 2.94 yuan. The ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2690 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2890 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2330 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 1980.81 yuan/ton, down 73.69 yuan. The international freight of imported corn is 42 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the corn main contract is 58.33 yuan/ton, up 13.94 yuan; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 12 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 416 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. 3.4 Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2445.56 yuan/ton, down 8.16 yuan. The spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 235 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan. The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 12 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. 3.5 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 377.63 million tons, with a sown area of 33.55 million hectares; in Brazil is 126 million tons, with a sown area of 22.3 million hectares; in Argentina is 50 million tons, with a sown area of 6.4 million hectares; in China is 294.92 million tons, with a sown area of 44.74 million hectares; in Ukraine is 26.8 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports is 136.7 tons, up 6.3 tons; in northern ports is 484 tons, down 2 tons. The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 141.2 tons, down 1.7 tons. The monthly import volume of corn is 18 tons, up 10 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 23.72 tons, up 3.37 tons [2]. 3.7 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2777.2 tons, down 66.4 tons. The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 178 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; in Hebei is - 97 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jilin is - 105 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory days of sample feed corn are 36.54 days, up 1.34 days. The consumption of deep - processed corn is 119.31 tons, down 0.52 tons [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 44.91%, up 1.3%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 54.33%, down 1.55% [2]. 3.8 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.71%, down 0.96%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.91%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 10.77%, down 0.24%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.77%, down 0.25% [2]. 3.9 Industry News - According to a survey by consulting firm Safras & Mercado, Brazil's corn output in the 2024/2025 season is expected to be 139 million tons, an increase of nearly 4 million tons from last month's forecast and higher than the 125.6 million tons in the 2023/24 season [2]. - As of the week ending June 1, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 69%, in line with market expectations, up from 68% the previous week and lower than 75% in the same period last year [2].