Haitong Securities International·2025-06-03 11:16Investment Rating - The report provides an "Outperform" rating for several companies in the consumer staples sector, including Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili, while some companies like Gujing Gongjiu are rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that among the eight key industries tracked in May 2025, six maintained positive growth, while two experienced negative growth. The industries with single-digit growth include catering, beer, soft drinks, condiments, frozen foods, and dairy products. The declining industries are mass and below-grade white spirits, as well as secondary premium and above-grade white spirits. Compared to the previous month, five industries saw improved growth rates, while three experienced deterioration. Overall consumption remained stable, with soft drinks and beer benefiting from higher national temperatures. The improvement in catering consumption positively impacted upstream condiments and frozen foods, while white spirits weakened due to new official alcohol restriction orders [2][28]. Summary by Category White Spirits - The revenue of China's secondary premium and above-grade white spirits industry in May was 27.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.5%. Cumulative revenue from January to May was 194.5 billion yuan, a decline of 0.1%. Price trends showed more declines than increases, particularly in ultra-premium categories [10][29]. - The mass and below-grade white spirits industry reported revenue of 16.7 billion yuan in May, down 13.0% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue from January to May at 91.9 billion yuan, down 13.7% [12][30]. Beer - The beer industry generated revenue of 15.5 billion yuan in May, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. Cumulative revenue from January to May was 76.1 billion yuan, up 0.5%. The industry entered its peak consumption season, with expected gradual recovery in sales growth [14][31]. Condiments - The condiments industry reported revenue of 35.0 billion yuan in May, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%. Cumulative revenue from January to May was 190.4 billion yuan, growing by 1.6%. Despite short-term growth due to holiday demand, long-term demand remains weak [16]. Dairy Products - The dairy industry achieved revenue of 35.8 billion yuan in May, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. Cumulative revenue from January to May was 191.8 billion yuan, down 0.2%. The industry is recovering from a low base but has not yet returned to previous levels [18]. Frozen Foods - The frozen food industry reported revenue of 6.1 billion yuan in May, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. Cumulative revenue from January to May was 49.2 billion yuan, up 1.4%. Demand is expected to remain low as the industry enters its traditional off-season [20]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink industry generated revenue of 56.0 billion yuan in May, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. Cumulative revenue from January to May was 291.6 billion yuan, up 2.4%. The industry is benefiting from seasonal demand, although price competition remains intense [22]. Catering - The catering industry reported total revenue of 14.0 billion yuan in May, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Cumulative revenue from January to May was 71.1 billion yuan, up 2.8%. The industry saw a recovery in demand driven by holiday periods, although overall performance remains low [24].