Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-03 11:08Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic recovery needs further consolidation, and policies are expected to be further strengthened. The PNBP policy of the Indonesian government has increased the supply cost of nickel resources, and the premium of domestic trade ore has remained stable. The Philippines plans to implement a nickel ore export ban from June 2025, and the actual progress should be monitored. Domestic smelters' costs have steadily increased, and some are facing losses, while Indonesia's nickel - iron production capacity is accelerating, and output has significantly recovered. On the demand side, stainless - steel mills' profits are compressed, and the 300 - series is shifting production to other products. The demand for new - energy vehicles continues to rise, but its impact is limited. Recently, both supply and demand are weak, with domestic inventories decreasing and overseas inventories remaining stable. Technically, there is a volume - shrinking, position - reducing rebound. It is expected to have a weak and volatile adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light short position [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,250 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread is - 220 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,510 dollars/ton, up 205 dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 91,891 lots, down 2,963 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is 1,027 lots, up 2,203 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 201,462 tons, up 1,152 tons. The上期所 nickel inventory is 27,075 tons, up 120 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants are 28,476 tons, up 570 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,038 tons, down 19 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,850 yuan/ton, up 525 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River is 122,950 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 100 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 100 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,900 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,600 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) spread is - 203.04 dollars/ton, down 7.42 dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 291.41 million tons, up 137.89 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 725.88 million tons, down 5.63 million tons. The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 78.86 dollars/ton, down 32.99 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 21,700 metal tons, down 1,100 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 18,746.54 tons, up 10,187.11 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 81.69 million tons, down 19.64 million tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 182.43 million tons, down 7.75 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 60.62 million tons, down 2.1 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points. The sales volume of consumer goods trade - in this year exceeded 1 trillion yuan. As of May 31, the 5 major categories of consumer goods trade - in drove sales of 1.1 trillion yuan and issued about 175 million direct subsidies to consumers. The number of subsidy applications for automobile trade - in reached 4.12 million, and 49.863 million consumers bought 77.618 million household appliances in 12 major categories. The US May ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.5, the lowest since November 2024, with an expected 49.5 and a previous value of 48.7. The final value of the US May S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52, with an initial value of 52.3. The Fed's Daly said she was still comfortable with the Fed's March forecast, which showed two rate cuts by the end of the year. She hopes to maintain a moderately restrictive policy rate until it is certain that the inflation rate will reach the 2% target [3]