Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The recent continuous decline of urea is mainly due to two reasons: the cost collapse caused by the continuous decline of coal prices and the lag in demand due to the delayed release of agricultural demand in some domestic regions because of weather conditions [1]. - Export and domestic agricultural demand still support the price. As it is still the peak season for top - dressing of crops such as corn and the upstream inventory pressure has significantly reduced, the possibility of a further sharp decline in urea prices is low. The risk to consider is the change in export policies [1]. - The strategy suggestion is to wait and see in the short - term and go long on dips in the medium - term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1703 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from 1705 yuan/ton; UR05 closed at 1717 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from 1721 yuan/ton; UR09 closed at 1773 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from 1784 yuan/ton [1]. - Domestic spot prices: Shandong decreased by 0.53% to 1870 yuan/ton; Henan decreased by 0.54% to 1850 yuan/ton; other regions such as Shanxi, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - Basis and spreads: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 6 yuan/ton to 153 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 14 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan, Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1787 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1793 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1764 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1773 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1778 yuan/ton, and the position was 225127 lots [1].
尿素早评：成本坍塌与需求滞后-20250603
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-06-03 11:17