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社会服务及商贸零售行业2025年中期投资策略:新消费持续高景气强政策推动大机会
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-06-03 11:22

Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The report recommends expanding high school education, highlighting companies such as Tianli International Holdings and Xueda Education as potential beneficiaries [2] - AI commercialization is accelerating, with applications in new hardware like AI glasses and toys, and sectors such as human resources, e-commerce, and education leading in efficiency improvements [6][11] - The report identifies undervalued stocks including Action Education, Chongqing Department Store, Da Shang Co., Chow Tai Fook, and Yum China as potential investment opportunities [2] Group 2: High School and Undergraduate Expansion - The high school education sector is expected to benefit from a demographic dividend for the next 7-8 years, with stable demand projected until around 2032-2033 [11][12] - Policy support is driving the expansion of high school education, transitioning from a split between vocational and general education to a more integrated approach [12][13] - China's high school graduation rates are gradually approaching those of developed countries, indicating significant growth potential in the education sector [18][19] Group 3: Emotional Value and New Supply in Consumption - The emotional value and experiential consumption sectors are rapidly evolving, with a focus on IP-driven products and traditional goods like gold jewelry seeing increased demand [6][53] - The report notes that gold jewelry is benefiting from rising prices and enhanced craftsmanship, leading to market expansion [53][57] - The tea and coffee sectors are undergoing product and channel innovations, with structural growth opportunities identified despite varying business models [6][74] Group 4: Technological Transformation - New technologies, particularly AI, are being applied to physical devices and are expected to enhance efficiency across various sectors [6][11] - The retail landscape is shifting from a focus on location to product selection, with new retail formats emerging to capitalize on scale economies [6][11] - Traditional retail is facing significant pressure to adapt, with a strong impetus for transformation across all formats [6][11] Group 5: Retail Channel Development - The core capabilities of retail channels are evolving from site selection to product selection, with new discount retail formats emerging [6][11] - The report highlights the rise of discount retail formats such as snack discount stores and urban outlet malls, which are achieving scale economies [6][11] - The traditional retail sector is experiencing a shift towards decentralization, with various formats adapting to changing consumer behaviors [6][11]