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流动性与机构行为跟踪:农商减存单
Tebon Securities·2025-06-03 11:25
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (May 26 - May 30), the money market rates showed divergence, with the net lending of large banks increasing and the leverage of funds rising. The net financing of certificates of deposit (CDs) increased, and the yields of CDs with different maturities showed divergence. In terms of spot bond trading, the main buyers were wealth management products, which mainly increased their holdings of CDs. Rural commercial banks significantly reduced their holdings of CDs, while insurance companies increased their holdings of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds with maturities of 15 - 30 years [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money and Capital Market - Open Market Operations: A total of 946 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured this week. The central bank injected 1602.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases from Monday to Friday, with a net liquidity injection of 656.6 billion yuan [5][11]. - Funding Rates: As of May 30, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.57%, 1.7%, 1.48%, and 1.66% respectively, changing by - 4.52BP, 7.06BP, - 8.3BP, and 7.85BP compared to May 23, and were at the 23%, 12%, 20%, and 8% historical quantiles respectively [5]. - Net Lending of Main Lenders: The net borrowing scale of main lending institutions (large commercial/policy banks and joint - stock banks) decreased. The net borrowing was - 625.6 billion yuan this week, a decrease of 93.78 billion yuan compared to the previous week [5][19]. - Repo Trading Volume: The trading volume of pledged repos decreased, with an average daily trading volume of 6.5 trillion yuan, and the highest single - day trading volume reached 7.16 trillion yuan, a 3.31% decrease from the previous week's average daily trading volume. The proportion of overnight repo transactions decreased, with an average daily proportion of 83.9%, and the highest single - day proportion reached 90.2%, a 3.49 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week's average daily proportion [5]. - Leverage Ratio: As of May 30, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurance companies, and broad - based funds were 102.9%, 188.3%, 127.7%, and 105.3% respectively, changing by - 0.24BP, - 4.47BP, 1.69BP, and - 0.06BP compared to May 23, and were at the 5%, 1%, 66%, and 35% historical quantiles respectively [5][32]. 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - CD Issuance and Financing: This week, the issuance scale of CDs decreased, but the net financing increased. The total issuance was 668.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 44.19 billion yuan from the previous week; the total maturity was 652.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 64.51 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing was 15.77 billion yuan, an increase of 40.32 billion yuan from the previous week [5][34]. - CD Maturity: The maturity volume of CDs decreased this week, with a total of 652.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 84.51 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week (June 2 - June 6), the maturity of CDs will be 666.55 billion yuan [5][34]. - Bill Rates: Most bill rates increased. As of May 30, the 3M direct - discount rate of state - owned shares, the 3M transfer - discount rate of state - owned shares, the 6M direct - discount rate of state - owned shares, and the 6M transfer - discount rate of state - owned shares were 1.2%, 1.16%, 1.14%, and 1.06% respectively, changing by 3BP, 7BP, 1BP, and - 3BP compared to May 23 [5][51]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Spot Bond Trading: This week, the main buyers of spot bonds were wealth management products, with a net purchase of 117.4 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week; the main sellers were joint - stock banks, with a net sale of 248.4 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week [5][53]. - Fund Behavior: Funds had a net purchase of 37.3 billion yuan in spot bonds, with a reduction of 11.2 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, an increase of 14.2 billion yuan in credit bonds, an increase of 4.4 billion yuan in other bonds (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and an increase of 29.8 billion yuan in CDs [5][53]. - Wealth Management Behavior: Wealth management products had a net purchase of 117.4 billion yuan in spot bonds, with an increase of 16.9 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, an increase of 9.1 billion yuan in credit bonds, an increase of 10.6 billion yuan in other bonds (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and an increase of 81 billion yuan in CDs [5][53]. - Rural Financial Institutions Behavior: Rural financial institutions had a net sale of 104.5 billion yuan in spot bonds, with a reduction of 20.1 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, an increase of 400 million yuan in credit bonds, an increase of 6.8 billion yuan in other bonds (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and a reduction of 91.6 billion yuan in CDs [5][54]. - Insurance Behavior: Insurance companies had a net purchase of 100.5 billion yuan in spot bonds, with an increase of 66.4 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, an increase of 6.2 billion yuan in credit bonds, a reduction of 5.6 billion yuan in other bonds (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and an increase of 33.5 billion yuan in CDs [5][56].