Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward space of PTA may be limited. At the beginning of the month, the PTA supply - demand remained tight, but the de - stocking amplitude narrowed. Attention should be paid to the polyester production cut amplitude. In late June, as PTA maintenance devices restart and new devices are expected to be put into production, coupled with the possible expansion of the production cut amplitude due to increasing pressure on downstream polyester, the PTA supply - demand will gradually weaken, and the basis may be under pressure at that time. It is not recommended to chase long at high positions [2][7][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA09 contract was recommended to go long at low positions. The weekly opening price of the 09 contract was 4706, the highest was 4830, the lowest was 4652, and the closing price was 4700, with a weekly decline of 16 or 0.17% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Maintenance Supports PXN to be Strong - In terms of PX capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end. There is only a plan to put into operation a new 3 - million - ton capacity of Yulongdao in 2024, and there is no expectation of new project commissioning in 2025. From January to April 2025, the domestic PX output was 12.28 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; from January to March 2025, the domestic PX imports were 2.248 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. - In May, the PX operation rate in Asia and China was low. The average monthly load of domestic PX in May increased by 3.7% to 77.2%, while that of Asian PX decreased by 0.3% to 69.5%. Although the previously maintained devices gradually restarted in May, due to poor profitability, the unplanned maintenance of PX devices increased, and the maintenance plans of some downstream PTA devices were postponed. The PX supply - demand recovered better than expected, and inventory was reduced. - In June, PX device maintenance in Asia was also relatively concentrated, but with the repair of processing margins, the maintenance of some devices might be postponed. It is expected that the domestic PX supply will increase in June. Although the maintained PX devices will gradually resume operation in June, with the increase in PTA supply, the PX supply - demand is still expected to be tight. Currently, there is a seesaw effect between PX and PTA supply - demand. Attention should be paid to the PTA device maintenance plan and the implementation of PX device maintenance [3][4] 2.2 PTA Supply Pressure May Increase in Late June - From January to April 2025, the domestic PTA output was 23.69 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In April, the average monthly load of PTA was around 77.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared with January. The PTA load increased to 79.3%, which was at a neutral level in the same period over the years. The PTA load was at a low level in May, and the maintenance volume was higher than that in April. - In June, there are expectations of device maintenance for Taihua 1, Fuhai Chuang, Jiaxing Petrochemical, Dongying William, etc. Devices such as 2% of Jiayue Energy, Fengming 3, and Yisheng Dahua are planned to restart, and there is an expectation of new device commissioning for Honggang Petrochemical. Other devices will maintain reduced loads or continue maintenance. The loss of conventional device maintenance in June is only 427,000 tons, significantly lower than the average maintenance loss of over 650,000 tons from April to May. Coupled with the commissioning of Honggang Phase III in early June, it is expected that the average monthly load of PTA in June will increase. - At the beginning of the month, the PTA supply - demand remained tight, but the de - stocking amplitude narrowed. Attention should be paid to the polyester production cut amplitude. In late June, as PTA maintenance devices restart and new devices are expected to be put into production, coupled with the possible expansion of the production cut amplitude due to increasing pressure on downstream polyester, the PTA supply - demand will gradually weaken, and the basis may be under pressure at that time [7] 2.3 The Sustainability of Polyester Demand Remains to be Observed - From January to April 2025, the domestic polyester output was 25.41 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. - In May, the load of weaving and texturing rebounded beyond expectations. Due to the improvement of orders at the end of April, there was a phenomenon of rush - to - export. After the May Day holiday, the loads of weaving and polyester did not decline but increased. Then on May 12th, the China - US talks achieved positive progress, and both sides reduced tariffs. The orders exported to the US resumed shipment, the inventory of grey fabrics was significantly reduced, and the market sentiment improved greatly. With the rapid rebound of raw material prices, downstream enterprises also began to conduct concentrated rigid - demand and speculative raw material stocking, and the inventory of filament yarn decreased significantly. - However, since late May, due to the short - term rapid increase in the raw material end, the negative feedback of polyester production cuts has begun to appear. Large filament yarn manufacturers have started production cut plans, and the polyester load has declined from a high level. In terms of future expectations, the short - term weaving load is expected to remain stable, and there is a possibility of a decline in the load in mid - to - late June. Attention should be paid to the tariff changes under the game between the US Trade Court and Trump. For the polyester load, continue to pay attention to the implementation of production cuts [8] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - At the beginning of the month, the PTA supply - demand remained tight, but the de - stocking amplitude narrowed. Attention should be paid to the polyester production cut amplitude. In late June, as PTA maintenance devices restart and new devices are expected to be put into production, coupled with the possible expansion of the production cut amplitude due to increasing pressure on downstream polyester, the PTA supply - demand will gradually weaken, and the basis may be under pressure at that time [12]
PTA：上行空间或受限
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-06-03 11:45