中原期货晨会纪要-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market in June is expected to have a certain downward pressure in the short term due to disturbing factors, but the bottom is relatively solid, and subsequent market trends will likely be mainly structural. Institutions suggest using dividend assets as the base position and also considering growth and consumption sectors. They are optimistic about banks, the computing power industry chain, card-based collectibles, and innovative drugs [6]. - The Chinese economy in the second quarter is expected to continue a stable trend under the continuous efforts of growth-stabilizing policies, but the foundation for economic recovery needs to be consolidated, and policies need to be further strengthened [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - The US accused China of violating the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce firmly rejected the unreasonable accusation, urging the US to correct its wrong actions and jointly maintain the consensus [6]. - The EU expressed regret over the US decision to raise steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% starting from June 4th, which increases economic uncertainty across the Atlantic. Negotiations between the two sides are ongoing [6]. - China's manufacturing PMI in May increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, and the export container freight rate index rebounded. Experts believe that the Chinese economy in the second quarter is expected to maintain a stable trend, but policy support is still needed [7]. - The Chinese logistics industry showed strong resilience in the first four months of the year, with the total social logistics volume reaching 115.3 trillion yuan from January to April, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [7]. - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the estimated cross-regional passenger flow in China reached 6.57 billion person-times, with an average daily flow of 2.19 billion person-times, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [7]. - The "involutionary" competition in the automotive industry has led to a continuous decline in the profit margin of the industry, from 4.3% in 2024 to 3.9% in the first quarter of this year, and may also affect the quality of parts [8]. 3.2 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The peanut spot market has stabilized after a rise. The demand from traders and oil mills is weakening. The spot market has strong bottom support, but the futures market is expected to be weak and volatile [11]. - Oils: The trading volume of oils decreased on May 30th. The palm oil export from Malaysia in May increased by 17.9% compared to the same period last month, and about 17% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought. The oil market lacks new positive drivers and is expected to be weak and volatile [11]. - Sugar: On May 30th, the sugar futures main contract showed a narrow and weak trend. The supply in Brazil has improved, and the international raw sugar has rebounded. The domestic spot price is stable, but the increase in imports is suppressing market sentiment. It is recommended to maintain a short-term bearish view [11]. - Corn: On May 30th, the corn main contract showed a trend of increasing prices with decreasing positions. The supply in the northern ports is still high, and the demand is affected by wheat substitution. Technically, it is necessary to pay attention to the resistance level at 2340 yuan. It is recommended to try long positions lightly with support at 2330 yuan [11]. - Hogs: During the Dragon Boat Festival, the hog price in China remained stable. The price in the north may weaken due to the recovery of supply, and the price in the south has limited room for decline or increase. The futures main contract is oscillating around 13,500 [11][13]. - Eggs: During the Dragon Boat Festival, the egg spot price remained stable. After the festival, the demand is expected to weaken, and the price will be under pressure. The futures market still faces mid - term capacity pressure [13]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea market price is stable. The daily production is high, and the inventory of upstream enterprises is increasing. The demand for summer fertilizers is approaching the end, but there is still replenishment demand. The price is under short - term pressure but supported by export expectations [13]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong and the warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained unchanged on May 30th. The supply in Shandong is expected to decrease in June, and the market in East China is expected to be firm. The caustic soda 2509 contract continues to operate at a low level [13]. - Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal and coke is sufficient, and the terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The price of coking coal auctions is falling, and the price of coke is expected to decline further. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be under pressure and weaken [13][15]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: On May 30th, the spot prices of copper and aluminum decreased. The copper and aluminum inventories are decreasing, but the overseas tariff risk still exists, and the prices are expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate [15]. - Alumina: On May 30th, the spot price of alumina increased slightly. The production capacity is recovering, and the supply pressure is easing. The domestic import window is gradually opening. The spot price is firm, but there is an expectation of medium - term oversupply. The alumina 2509 contract rebounds from a low level and may fluctuate around 3000 [15]. - Steel: During the holiday, the tariff risk continued, and the market sentiment was affected. The trading volume of steel decreased, and the supply - demand structure may weaken. The steel price is expected to be under pressure and weaken after the festival [15]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals of ferroalloys changed little last week, but the prices were weak. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is not strong, and it is recommended not to chase short positions. The cost of silicomanganese is falling, and the supply - demand of alloys is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the overall trend of the black series [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: On May 30th, the lithium carbonate futures main contract showed an oscillating upward trend, but the trading volume decreased. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is close to the low - level range this year, and the volatility is increasing. It is recommended to operate within the range of 59,000 - 60,500 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index: On May 30th, the A - share market adjusted, and the trading volume exceeded 1.1 trillion yuan. The European and American stock markets had mixed performances on Monday. The impact of the previous tariff friction on the market has been digested, and the market may have short - term structural fluctuations. The large - cap stocks may be relatively dominant in the future. The technology sector is worth attention. It is recommended to participate in long positions around the gap on May 7th and consider selling straddle options [19][20][21]. - Options: On May 29th, the A - share market rose, and the trading volume increased. The basis of stock index futures decreased, and the implied volatility of options changed. Trend investors are advised to defend, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddle options after the volatility decreases [21].