Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ production increases strengthen the expectation of a rise in global crude oil supply. If OPEC+ continues to increase production, the global crude oil market may be in a long - term supply surplus, intensifying the current imbalance between supply and demand and putting long - term downward pressure on oil prices. Long - term attention should be paid to the implementation of OPEC+ production increases. Short - term factors such as Ukraine's attacks on Russian air bases, Canadian wildfires, and low inventory levels support oil prices. Short - term trading is recommended [2][6][33] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil oscillated. SC2507 opened at 451 for the week, reached a high of 468, a low of 461, and closed at 447, down 4.9 or 1.08% for the week. The 07 contract also oscillated [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 OPEC - In April, OPEC's total crude oil production decreased by 62,000 barrels per day to 26.71 million barrels per day, and the total production of "OPEC+" countries decreased by 106,000 barrels per day to 40.92 million barrels per day. Kazakhstan's oil production in April decreased by 41,000 barrels per day to 1.82 million barrels per day. The IEA raised its 2025 total oil supply forecast from 104.2 million barrels per day to 104.6 million barrels per day, and adjusted the 2026 global oil supply growth forecast from 960,000 barrels per day to 970,000 barrels per day, and the 2026 total oil supply forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 105.6 million barrels per day. On May 31, 2025, eight OPEC+ member countries decided to increase daily oil production by 411,000 barrels starting from July, which is the third consecutive month of supply expansion of the same scale since May. The alliance said the increase is based on a stable global economy and a healthy market, and it will adjust the supply rhythm dynamically according to the seasonal peak demand in the third quarter and reserve the right to "suspend or reverse the production increase" [5] 2.2 Russia - Russia, the second - largest oil producer in OPEC+, relies on a wartime economy for economic growth. President Putin estimated that Russia's GDP grew by 3.9% in 2024. Russia's crude oil production in 2024 was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In March 2025, its crude oil production dropped from 9.08 million barrels per day in February to 9.07 million barrels per day, still higher than the OPEC+ quota of 8.98 million barrels per day. However, OPEC data showed that in March, Russia's crude oil production further decreased to 8.963 million barrels per day. According to Russia's new energy strategy, its crude oil production is expected to stabilize at 540 million metric tons per year (10.8 million barrels per day) by 2050. The second - round Russia - Ukraine negotiation was held in Istanbul, Turkey on June 2, 2025. Ukraine claimed to have caused $7 billion in losses to Russia through the "Spider Web" operation. The Russian delegation brought a memorandum draft and other cease - fire proposals to the negotiation. Ukraine stated it would not compromise on territorial issues [7][8] 2.3 United States - As of the week ending May 23, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.401 million barrels per day, an increase of 9,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased by 4 to 461, the fifth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest level in three and a half years. The EIA predicted that US crude oil production in 2025 would be 13.51 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast of 13.61 million barrels per day, and the 2026 production would be 13.56 million barrels per day, previously estimated at 13.76 million barrels per day [9] 2.4 Americas' Production Increase - OPEC said that in 2025, the supply from non - OPEC+ countries would increase by about 800,000 barrels per day, lower than last month's forecast of 900,000 barrels per day. The IEA maintained its 2025 non - OPEC+ supply growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day and lowered the 2026 non - OPEC+ supply growth forecast from 920,000 barrels per day to 820,000 barrels per day [16] 2.5 Inventory - OPEC reported that in March 2025, the total OECD oil and crude oil product inventory was 3.996 billion barrels, a decrease of 13.41 million barrels from the previous quarter and an increase of 130,000 barrels from the same period last year. As of the week ending May 23, 2025, US total crude oil inventory was 842 million barrels, a decrease of 1.975 million barrels (- 0.23%) from the previous week; strategic crude oil inventory was 401 million barrels, an increase of 820,000 barrels (+ 0.20%); commercial crude oil inventory was 440 million barrels, a decrease of 2.795 million barrels (- 0.63%); and Cushing crude oil inventory was 23.51 million barrels, an increase of 75,000 barrels (+ 0.32%) [17] 2.6 Consumption - OPEC predicted that global oil demand would increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026, higher than the IEA's estimate of 741,000 barrels per day. The IEA raised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 726,000 barrels per day to 741,000 barrels per day and the 2026 forecast from 692,000 barrels per day to 760,000 barrels per day, and predicted that the average global oil demand in 2026 would reach 104.7 million barrels per day. As of the week ending May 23, 2025, US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.328 million barrels per day, a decrease of 162,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the refinery utilization rate was 90.20%, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous week. On May 16, US refined oil processing fees were $174 per ton, and Asian refinery processing fees were low at $187 per ton. In the week of May 16, the profit of Shandong independent refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 335 yuan per ton, a decrease of 125 yuan per ton from the previous week and 30 yuan per ton from the same period last year. On May 16, the profit of major refineries was 751 yuan per ton, an increase of 310 yuan per ton from the previous week. In April, the US refinery utilization rate was 88.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; the European utilization rate was 81.90%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.10% [20][24][25] 2.6 Geopolitics - On May 23, Iran and the US started the fifth - round indirect nuclear negotiation in Rome, Italy, mediated by Oman. US President Trump said there was a "very good dialogue" with Iran, but the Iranian Foreign Minister downplayed the progress. Oman's Foreign Minister said the negotiation "made some but not decisive progress." On May 31, Oman's Foreign Minister visited Iran to introduce the US negotiation proposal. The US insists that Iran should completely stop all levels of uranium enrichment activities, while Iran emphasizes that moderate uranium enrichment is part of its right to peaceful use of nuclear energy and is willing to sign a nuclear agreement if the US lifts sanctions. Hamas in Palestine announced its willingness to start a new round of cease - fire negotiations in the Gaza Strip, and Qatar and Egypt will continue to work for a cease - fire agreement [30][32] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Long - term attention should be paid to OPEC+ production increase implementation. Short - term trading is recommended due to short - term supporting factors [33]
原油关注OPEC+产量落实情况
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-06-03 12:02