玻璃周度报告：企业库存较稳，需求仍偏弱-20250603

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of float glass enterprises is poor. With the expectation of water storage in production lines this week and no ignition or glass output, the weekly output is expected to decline. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has decreased slightly. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the upper pressure of the 09 contract is around 1000. Short - term high - selling and low - buying are recommended, and stop - loss should be noted [2][23] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of domestic float glass is on a downward trend, with weak overall demand. Due to the rainy season in the South, the market trading is poor. Some enterprises offer discounts to promote sales, and the market price continues to decline. In the Shahe area, factory shipments are average, and dealers mainly sell inventory. The Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan market performs okay, but there are differences in the shipment of different manufacturers. The focus of the East China market has declined slightly, with weak demand and the impact of low - priced glass from the periphery. Most enterprises in the South are mainly focused on shipping due to high inventory [8] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply - demand Analysis - Supply - side Analysis - Expected Supply Decline: As of May 29, the national float glass output was 1.1041 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.25%. The average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.68%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.34 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 78.62%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.42 percentage points. With the expectation of water storage in production lines this week and no ignition or glass output, the weekly output is expected to decline. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 167.97 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton; that using coal - made gas was 100.10 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15.67 yuan/ton; and that using petroleum coke was - 107.04 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20.00 yuan/ton [12] - Demand - side Analysis - Weak Orders from Deep - processing Enterprises: As of May 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.2%. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. From January to April 2025, the cumulative real - estate completion area was 156.4785 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. In April 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 59.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.2 percentage points. The manufacturing PMI in April was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [14][15] - Inventory Analysis - Slight Inventory Reduction of Float Glass Enterprises: As of May 29, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.662 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 107,000 weight boxes and a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%, a year - on - year increase of 14.06%. The inventory days were 30.4 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous period. The overall shipment in North China was average, and the inventory in East China increased slightly [17] 2.2 Position Analysis - As of May 30, the total long - position volume of the top 20 members in glass futures was 910,353, a decrease of 57,489; the total short - position volume was 1,122,204, a decrease of 69,731. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of float glass enterprises is poor. With the expectation of water storage in production lines this week and no ignition or glass output, the weekly output is expected to decline. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has decreased slightly. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the upper pressure of the 09 contract is around 1000. Short - term high - selling and low - buying are recommended, and stop - loss should be noted [23]