钢材期货周度报告：淡季需求疲弱，成本支撑下移-20250603

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices fluctuated downward, with the average national rebar price dropping by 58 yuan/ton week-on-week. Affected by weak macro real - estate data, market sentiment was pessimistic. The seasonal inflection point of construction steel demand has emerged, demand has entered a downward channel, supply - side production remains high, inventory depletion has slowed down, and prices have generally declined. The overall operating logic of the steel market is still the continuous price decline caused by cost collapse, and the current price still faces significant downward pressure [2][4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated downward this week, with the average national rebar price dropping by 58 yuan/ton week - on - week. Due to weak macro real - estate data, market sentiment was pessimistic. The seasonal inflection point of construction steel demand has occurred, demand has entered a downward channel, supply - side production remains high, inventory depletion has slowed down, and prices have generally declined [2][4]. 2. Macro and Industry News - In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that China's overall economic output continued to expand [6]. - US President Trump announced on May 30 (local time) that the tariff on imported steel would be raised from 25% to 50%, effective June 4 [7]. - The Office of the US Trade Representative extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China's technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation - related behaviors, policies, and practices from May 31, 2025, to August 31, 2025 [7]. - From January to April, driven by the automobile replacement subsidy policy, automobile production reached 10.12 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%; the automobile industry's revenue was 3.2552 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7%; costs were 2.8636 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%; and profits were 132.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [7]. - In June, the production plan for household air conditioners was 20.5 million units, a 11.5% increase compared to the actual production in the same period last year; the production plan for refrigerators was 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase compared to the actual production in the same period last year; and the production plan for washing machines was 6.75 million units, the same as the actual production in the same period last year [7]. - As of May 30, 5.3 million tons of coking plant production capacity had been shut down in Shandong Province. By the end of June 2025, the province's coking plant production capacity is expected to be reduced to about 33 million tons, a total reduction of about 10 million tons [7]. - From May 19 to May 25, 2024, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 14.174 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 411,000 tons, showing a slight inventory build - up, and the current inventory has reached the highest level since the beginning of the year [8]. - In May, major Chinese cities continued the trend of a structural increase in new - home prices and a decline in second - hand home prices. The average price of new residential buildings in 100 Chinese cities was 16,815 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 2.56% [8]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to a survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 101,700 tons, higher than last week's 95,300 tons. The trading of low - priced resources improved, pre - holiday stockpiling increased, and market pessimism eased [11]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The US tariff policy is still volatile, but the overall macro environment is bearish. In June, the weak demand for steel is expected to continue due to hot and rainy weather and the approaching high - school and college entrance exams. Under the situation of low demand and low efficiency, steel mills are increasing production control, which will also suppress raw material prices. The steel market's operating logic is still price decline due to cost collapse, and although the short - term valuation is low, the downward pressure on prices remains high [33]. - The black - series futures continued to decline. The main coking coal contract fell more than 10% this week, coke fell more than 6%, rebar and hot - rolled coil fell between 3% - 4%, and iron ore fell 2.84%. The main rebar contract closed at 2,961, down 10 points for the day, 85 points lower than last week's closing price, and the weekly settlement price was 2,982, down 81 points. The latest position was 2.296 million lots, an increase of 138,000 lots from last Friday, showing a pattern of increasing positions and falling prices. After breaking below the 3,000 - point mark on the weekly chart, it is difficult to return to this level, and the weekly moving averages are diverging downward. The reference operating range is 2,860 - 3,050 [33]. - Investment strategies: For single - sided trading, combine shorting at high levels with range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, mainly wait and see; for steel profits, mainly wait and see; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][33].