油脂粕类6月报：油脂震荡运行，粕类反弹空间有限-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For oils, it is expected that the global soybean supply will remain loose in the 2025/26 season. Although the planting area and output of US soybeans will decrease, Brazil's soybean output may reach a record high. Currently, the weather in the main soybean - growing areas in the US is good, and the planting progress is fast. In the domestic market, a large amount of soybeans will arrive at ports, and the weekly soybean crushing volume will exceed 2 million tons, leading to a gradual build - up of soybean oil inventory. The CBOT soybean and soybean oil prices may fluctuate weakly. Palm oil is in the seasonal production - increasing period, but the inventory build - up in Malaysia in May is expected to be small due to improved export demand. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a low level, and the import volume is expected to increase gradually. Rapeseed prices in the Intercontinental Exchange are rising, providing support for rapeseed oil, but the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still high. The strategy is to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on the opportunity of going long on rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil for arbitrage [5][7]. - For protein meals, the global soybean supply will remain loose in the 2025/26 season. The domestic soybean crushing volume is high, and the soybean meal inventory is rising from a low level. The rebound space of soybean meal is limited. The price of rapeseed meal is supported by the rising rapeseed price, but the high inventory of imported rapeseed meal restricts its upward movement. The strategy is to wait for the opportunity to short after the rebound for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoint and Strategy 3.1.1 Oils - Core fundamentals: Global soybean supply is loose. US soybean planting progress is fast, and domestic soybean oil is accumulating inventory. Palm oil production increase in Malaysia is small, and exports are improving. Rapeseed prices support rapeseed oil, but domestic rapeseed oil supply is abundant [7]. - Cost and profit: As of May 30, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans in July is 3,557 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 184 yuan/ton. The import cost of palm oil (June shipment) is 8,456 yuan/ton, with a spot profit of - 125.36 yuan/ton. The arrival duty - paid price of Canadian rapeseed (June shipment) is 5,253 yuan/ton, with a spot crushing profit of - 68 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply and demand: In June, the estimated import volume of soybeans is 10.5 million tons, rapeseed is 200,000 tons, and palm oil is 252,000 tons. In May, the domestic soybean oil sales decreased by 42%, palm oil sales increased by 30.34%, and rapeseed oil sales decreased by 23% [7]. - Inventory: As of May 23, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 1.8018 million tons, a decrease of 0.67 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 4.70% [7]. - Strategy: Wait and see for single - side trading; focus on the opportunity of going long on rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil for arbitrage [7]. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - Core fundamentals: Global soybean supply is loose. Domestic soybean meal inventory is rising from a low level. The rebound of soybean meal is restricted by the large arrival of soybeans. Rapeseed meal is supported by the rising rapeseed price, but the high inventory of imported rapeseed meal restricts its upward movement [10]. - Cost and profit: As of May 30, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans in July is 3,557 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 184 yuan/ton. The arrival duty - paid price of Canadian rapeseed (June shipment) is 5,253 yuan/ton, with a spot crushing profit of - 68 yuan/ton [10]. - Supply and demand: In June, the estimated import volume of soybeans is 10.5 million tons and rapeseed is 200,000 tons. From May 3 - 30, the total soybean meal sales decreased by 20.47% compared with April. The coastal rapeseed meal pick - up volume decreased by 25.50%, and the consumption of imported rapeseed meal increased by 24.42% [10]. - Inventory: In the 21st week, the soybean meal inventory in oil mills increased by 70% from the previous week, still at a low level. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are 5.99 days, still at a low level. The rapeseed meal inventory in coastal oil mills decreased by 18.97% in the 21st week, while the imported rapeseed meal inventory is still high [10]. - Strategy: Wait for the opportunity to short after the rebound for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [10]. 3.2 Market Review of Oils and Meals in May 2025 - Oils: The oils sector fluctuated narrowly in May, affected by the rumor of US biodiesel policy. Soybean oil inventory is increasing, palm oil did not weaken during the production - increasing period due to improved exports, and rapeseed oil is supported by cost [14]. - Price differences: The price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil widened, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil narrowed, and the price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil changed little [19]. - Spot prices: In May, the spot price of rapeseed oil increased slightly, while the spot prices of soybean oil and palm oil decreased. On May 30, the mainstream price of rapeseed oil was 9,474 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan/ton; the average price of first - grade soybean oil was 7,928 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton; and the national average price of 24 - degree palm oil was 8,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton [21]. - Protein meals: Soybean and rapeseed meals rebounded in late May. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed to a low level, and the oil - meal ratio decreased. The spot price of soybean meal decreased significantly, while the spot price of rapeseed meal rebounded from a low level [25][28][31]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis of Oils and Oilseeds - International Situation - Global oilseed supply: It is expected that the global oilseed supply will be loose in the 2025/26 season. The global oilseed output is expected to be 692.1 million tons, a 2% increase. The global soybean output is expected to be 426.8 million tons, a 1% increase. The total output of rapeseed and sunflower seeds is expected to recover by 6% [36]. - US soybeans: The weather in the main soybean - growing areas is good, the planting progress is fast, and the crushing profit is low. As of May 25, the planting progress is 76%, and the emergence rate is 50% [45][47][51]. - Brazilian soybeans: The harvest is basically completed, and the export is still at a peak. It is estimated that the export volume in May is 14.03 million tons, a 4.16% year - on - year increase. The CNF premium has decreased slightly [54][56]. - Argentine soybeans: The current harvest progress is slow, but it is expected to speed up as the rainfall decreases [60]. - Malaysian palm oil: The production in May increased slightly, and the export improved. The inventory build - up in April exceeded expectations [63][68]. - Global rapeseed: It is expected that the global rapeseed output will recover in the 2025/26 season, reaching 89.558 million tons, a 445,900 - ton increase. The production increase mainly comes from the EU, Canada, and Russia [71]. - Canadian rapeseed: The rainfall in the main growing areas is slightly lower than normal, the planting progress is fast, and the export demand is strong. The price of rapeseed futures in the Intercontinental Exchange has been rising [74][77][81]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis of Oils and Oilseeds - Domestic Situation - Soybeans: It is expected that a large amount of soybeans will arrive at ports from June to July. The soybean inventory in oil mills will gradually increase, the import cost in May decreased, the crushing profit increased, and the crushing volume is expected to remain high [86][90][94][98]. - Palm oil: The import cost in May decreased slightly, the import profit improved, and the import volume in June is expected to increase [102][106][109]. - Rapeseed: The import cost of Canadian rapeseed in May increased, the crushing profit narrowed, the inventory in oil mills is low, and the crushing volume decreased significantly [113][118][127]. - Oils inventory: In May, the total inventory of the three major oils was relatively stable, but the inventory trends were different. Soybean oil inventory increased rapidly, rapeseed oil inventory decreased from a high level, and palm oil inventory remained low [131][137]. - Oils trading volume: In May, the trading volume of palm oil increased, while the trading volumes of soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreased [140]. - Soybean meal: The inventory is gradually increasing, and the trading volume in May decreased [143][147]. - Rapeseed meal: The inventory in oil mills is low, the port inventory is high, and the consumption in May decreased slightly [151][154][157].