LI AUTO(02015) Guotou Securities·2025-06-03 13:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of HKD 135.84 for the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a May delivery volume of 41,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.7% and a month-on-month increase of 20.4%, driven by the launch of the new Mega and L series [1][2]. - The new Mega model has seen significant order volume exceeding expectations, with projected deliveries of 2,500-3,000 units in July, indicating a growth of 150-200% compared to stable monthly deliveries in 2024 [1][2]. - The L series has enhanced product capabilities, with the L9 featuring advanced suspension systems and upgraded chips for improved safety and performance, with expectations for monthly deliveries to exceed 50,000 units as demand recovers [2][3]. - The company is expanding its sales and service network, with 506 retail centers and 502 service centers established by the end of May [2]. - The company anticipates delivering 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, generating revenue between CNY 32.5 billion and 33.8 billion [2]. - The next-generation smart driving architecture is set to launch with the pure electric i8 in July, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the market [2][3]. - The company has a solid order backlog for the MEGA model and is expanding its charging infrastructure, with over 2,414 supercharging stations as of May 31 [3]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of CNY 10.3 billion, CNY 16.0 billion, and CNY 17.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.6, 14.6, and 13.2 [3][10]. - Revenue projections for the company are CNY 167.3 billion in 2025, CNY 234.9 billion in 2026, and CNY 281.9 billion in 2027, reflecting a growth trajectory [10][12]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 6.2% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.8% [10][12].