信用业务周报：近期内外风险扰动或带来哪些影响？-20250603

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market is at a critical juncture with intertwined domestic and foreign policy variables, which will have complex impacts on the market. The core framework of high - quality development may be continuously strengthened, and the reform of public funds may reshape the industry ecosystem. Although there are some risks overseas, they are generally controllable in the medium term. The report maintains the "high - low switch" view and is relatively optimistic about the technology sector [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Observation - Market Deduction under Intertwined Disturbances: Domestically, the "15th Five - Year Plan" sets the tone, and the reform of public funds may reshape the market. Overseas, there are intensified tariff games between the US and Europe, and increased policy uncertainty in the US. The US - EU may reach a trade agreement this year, and the risk of a "black swan" event in US stocks and bonds is limited. The US International Trade Court has blocked the "reciprocal tariff" from taking effect, but Trump may bypass the ruling [5][6]. - Investment Suggestions: Maintain the "high - low switch" view. Build a bottom - position portfolio with stable assets such as dividends, gold, long - term bonds, and weighted stocks. Pay attention to the opportunities of safety - related assets and technology stocks for bottom - fishing. The high - prosperity of AI upstream computing power and servers will continue, and there will be opportunities in the domestic substitution direction of semiconductors [6]. Market Review - Market Performance: Most major market indices declined last week, with the ChiNext 50 having the largest decline of - 2.10%. Among the major industries, the healthcare and telecommunications service indices performed relatively well, while the optional consumption and materials indices performed weakly. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 18 industries rose, with environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, and national defense and military industry having relatively large increases, and the automobile, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals industries having relatively large declines [9][10][18]. - Trading Heat: The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 1093.905 billion yuan, down from the previous value, but still at a relatively high historical level (70.50% of the three - year historical quantile) [23]. - Valuation Tracking: As of May 30, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A Index was 18.94, a decrease of - 0.01 from the previous week, and it was at the 64.90% quantile of the past five - year history. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 17 industries' valuations (PE_TTM) recovered [29]. Economic Calendar - The report mentions paying attention to global economic data, but specific data are not provided [31]