Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector index increased by 1.79%, ranking 4th among 31 primary industries, driven by policy expectations [4][12] - The supply pressure for live pigs remains significant, but policies are signaling to stabilize pig prices [5][20] - The industry is expected to experience narrow fluctuations in pig prices in 2025, with a gradual reduction in production capacity [21] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the agricultural sector is 2705.92, with a 52-week high of 2838.04 and a low of 2110.64 [2] Livestock Industry Tracking Swine - As of June 2, the average price of live pigs is 14.41 yuan/kg, remaining stable compared to the previous week [5][17] - The number of breeding sows has been increasing since May 2024, indicating a potential rise in pig supply in the second half of 2025 [5][20] - Profit margins for self-bred pigs are around 36 yuan per head, while purchased piglets are incurring losses of 84 yuan per head [18] - The industry is focusing on cost competition, with recommendations to prioritize companies with cost advantages [6][21] Broilers - The price of white feather broiler chicks is stable at 3.00 yuan/chick, with meat chicken prices at 3.68 yuan/kg [27] - Concerns regarding imported breeds have eased, presenting opportunities for domestic breeding companies [27] Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have decreased to 6090 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan from the previous week [30] - The price of Brazilian soybeans is 3640 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.0% decline [30] - Cotton prices are slightly down to 14550 yuan/ton, showing a 0.1% decrease [30] - Corn prices have seen a minor drop to 2332 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [32]
农林牧渔行业报告（2025.05.24-2025.06.03）：生猪供应压力大，政策释放稳猪价信号
China Post Securities·2025-06-03 13:18